Quick Week 10 RECAP & Thoughts

Decent week in Week 10. The Carolina ML came through. I wasn’t brave enough to bet WFT on the moneyline. My main takeaway is don’t be afraid to put a little on the ML if you think the favorite is somewhat fraudulent (Arizona with no Kyler Murray) or way over-inflated (Tampa Bay).

Cam Newton got all the headlines but in actuality, the Panthers were just in a good spot. They just were. The Carolina defense is real and should be feared, especially against pass-heavy teams. As for Cam and the offense, I don’t expect much of an upgrade from Sam Darnold. But I do expect Christian McCaffrey to be a monster going forward.

While Arizona is a very good team, I still need to see more from them. Once they get Kyler back, they should be back to “normal”. However, I don’t expect Murray to be dominate out the gate. Remember, he relies heavily on his rushing and he has an ankle issue that kept him out for 2 whole weeks.

The Bills beat up on another shitty team. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I will be fading this team in the playoffs. They are still one-dimensional (even with all the rushing TDs this past weekend) and Josh Allen hasn’t shown me much.

The New York Football Jets stink. They aren’t getting any better on defense which is an indictment on Robert Saleh. Even Rex Ryan is piling on. I suspect the Jets will come out focused this week. I know Joe Flacco is starting but I think they might be giving their best effort of the year this weekend.

Jacksonville covered against the Colts. I felt that had to do more with the Colts getting up to a large lead and sitting on the ball more than the Jags playing hard. I still think the Jags are the worst team in the league and Trevor Lawrence is not improving. The Jags are tricky to bet on right now and I can’t blindly fade them anymore.

I have no idea what is going on with the LA Rams. While it was an obvious good spot for the Niners, it is strange that the Rams were completely uncompetitive in this one. I have not been on the Rams hype train like everyone else, but I do believe they are a good team. The loss of Robert Woods is big and will not be made up for by Odell Beckham.

Here’s the deal: bet Kyle Shanahan as a dog. I need to see momentum from this Niners team to bet them. They seem to be getting healthy. I’ll be more convinced of them if they can take care of business against teams like the Jags.

The WFT had the biggest upset of the weekend by taking care of Brady and the Bucs. This is the type of game I expected them to play when I bet them to win the NFC East before the season. That ship has now sailed with the Cowboys defense solidifying. The issue is that Chase Young, Washington’s best pass rusher, is now done for the season. Hard to expect the same results as last week without a key piece of their personnel.

It’s hard to imagine the Bucs, my top ranked team, having 3 consecutive bad outings. However, am I really going to lay over double digits against the Giants, who tend to play better on the road. If you recall, the Giants were very competitive against this Tampa team last year – albeit at home.  

Las Vegas got smoked by the Chiefs last weekend. It was close and then Desean Jackson…happened. Hard to believe that the Raiders didn’t bother changing their defense to the one that has limited Mahomes all year. It’s quite possible that Gus Bradley is a massive donkey who can’t adjust to the adjustments. That said, they are going up against Joe Burrow and a bevy of weapons this weekend.

My takeaway from the Sunday night game is not that the Chiefs are back. It’s that, the Raiders didn’t adjust. With that said, I still have a ton of concerns about KC. I do believe that the Dallas D is very overrated, however, Dan Quinn has been making the right adjustments all year. Dann Quinn is also a big proponent of the Cover 2 scheme that has frustrated Mahomes all season.

Rodgers looked rusty and Russ looked rusty. The difference here is that the Packers are a good team and the Seahawks are lacking in many spots. No surprise that the Packers found a way to win and cover. They’ve covered 9 straight with A LOT of luck. Back them at your own peril.

Seattle’s playoff window is closing. They absolutely need to beat the Cardinals this weekend. My concern is not Russ’s finger or focus but the bad Seattle defense. Hard to imagine Russ losing three in a row but that’s whats on the line this weekend.

Weird last minute Big Ben COVID diagnosis. I was on the Lions even prior to Mason Rudolph being named the starter. I still think Pittsburgh strictly wins games with their defense. That defense will be very hobbled this Sunday night against the Chargers.

The Lions have a tie. It ain’t a win, but it ain’t a loss. Look, this team is horrible. They may get worse as Jared Goff is trending out for the game against Cleveland. I can’t back this Lions team, even with double digit points.

The LA Chargers defense is in shambles. They are dead last in stopping the run. They are pretty good (7th overall) at stopping the pass. I think these stats are skewed as most teams don’t bother throwing too much against them. I think that their matchup against Pitt this weekend will be fascinating because they might be willing to sell out to stop the run, considering they feel Ben can’t beat them with his arm.

The Pats are the real deal. Belichick should be neck and neck with Vrabel for coach of the year. Mac Jones is deadly accurate and with a solid O-line and run game, that’s all you need sometimes. New England’s defense is also no slouch (lowkey ranked 5th overall). My only concern headed into their matchup with Atlanta this Thursday is do I back a rookie QB on the road laying a TD on a short week.

Cleveland needs to start Case Keenum. I get it, Baker was the 1st overall pick and has a bunch of insurance commercials. But this isn’t debatable anymore. He’s obviously hurt and Keenum had one of the best statistical seasons of any QB (EVER!!) with Stefanski as his offensive coordinator. I am more bullish on the Browns if Keenum is the starter.  

New Orleans kept is competitive with the Titans with Trevor Semien at QB and no Alvin Kamara. I think they should get Kamara back this Sunday. Their defense is still very good and so is their offensive line. I have to back Sean Payton as an underdog…

Tennessee just keeps winning regardless of injuries, spots, weather, you name it. Either this team has a horseshoe lodged up their ass or they will revert back to the mean. I think they are due for a let down spot.

The Vikings looked great against the LA this past weekend. I think the defense is coming along and that Cousins remembered that Justin Jefferson plays with him. All that to say, are the Vikings live at home this weekend? Why yes, they are.

The reason the sharps seem to love the Eagles is that they are strong upfront on both lines. This usually gives them a matchup advantage against their opponents. They will not have that edge this Sunday against the Saints.  

Denver needs a real starting QB. Teddy is fine and will keep them steady (.500 team) but is not enough to take them to the next level. Let’s see what they can do with Rodgers presumably at the helm next year.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 5.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Vikings, I believe they should be 5.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Vikings in Minnesota, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4 point favorite (accounting for a Minnesota 2.5-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 5.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Ravens should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be an 8 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.