Quick Week 14 RECAP & Thoughts

Favorites, favorites, favorites everywhere! The sheer number of favorites that won this past week was outstanding. The books couldn’t make the numbers big enough. And judging by this week’s spreads they are gonna right back to needing the hideous dogs.

Speaking of hideous..the Jets are terrible and aren’t getting any better. I really want Saleh to succeed but this ain’t it chief. The defense is statistically the worst in the NFL. Worse than Detroit, Jacksonville and Houston. How is this possible with a defensive minded coach? This is all putting aside the fact that Zach Wilson doesn’t look any good at all. I dunno how anyone is supposed to bet the Jets, in almost any scenario.

It looked hairy down the stretch but Tampa covered. And all the people that were holding Buffalo tickets are going to say they got robbed. Nahh, Tampa controlled 3 quarters of that game and seemed to let up in the 4th. They are and should be the odds on favorite to win the SuperBowl.

Is Dallas good? Serious question. Dak looks…distracted? I’m not sure what other word to use. Micah Parsons is a force and now that front line looks amazing. I still have my doubts about their secondary though.

Can someone explain to me what the rush of trying to replace Jimmy G was in San Fran? I don’t seem to understand. The dude looks average at times and phenomenal at others. He’s done nothing but win (when he was healthy). We haven’t seen Trey Lance at all. The Niners are going to be a live time in the playoffs.

Seattle beat another shitty team. And had some trouble doing it early on. I dunno, I don’t trust them, at all. When betting Seattle keep in mind that their defense is really bad and Russ covers up a lot of shit.

The Saints were favored by 5.5 points going into Sunday’s game against the god-awful Jets. They got back Kamara yet the line kept going down and closed -4! To the Jets. With no other information. So the biggest money was fading the Saints. I am keeping that in mind for this upcoming week.  

Buffalo made a valiant comeback to almost win the game against the Bucs. Too bad almost doesn’t count. Outside of the Chiefs, the Bills have yet to beat anyone noteworthy. Now that Tre White is done for the season, I don’t 100% trust their usually rocksolid secondary. While still ranked 1st overall DVOA defensively, I still continue to fade the Bills.  

Well, the Jags finally fired Urban Meyer. It only took him berating his coaching staff, kicking his kicker, fondling a younger girl at a bar, losing a shit ton of games, having a shouting match with his veteran wide receiver and not knowing what was going on on defense. Oh, he gets to walk away with a bunch of money too. What a shitty organization. All that said, usually when an awful coach gets fired, the team responds positively. We shall see.

The Bengals are fugazi. They had one really good win this year and everyone rides them. Well, I don’t. Bad offensive line and the defense is very suspect. I like them in games where Burrow can dominate. I do not think a game in Denver is one of those games.

The Panthers are spiraling out of control. I still like their secondary but almost every other aspect of that team is bad. It would be nice if they had McCaffrey. But they don’t. They also don’t have a legit NFL starting QB.

The Cardinals dominated the stats against the Rams and managed to lose because Kyler Murray is too short. It’s funny, but it’s not. I didn’t lose any faith in Arizona for that performance. However, they still aren’t the best team in the NFC.

The Bears did everything right in the first half and still got blown out. Both the coach and GM should be fired immediately. This team needs an identity and they don’t have one. The defense is not good anymore.

My god, the Giants. What in the hell was that? Their best unit, the secondary, managed to give up one of the longest pass plays in the NFL this year at the absolute worst time. Another team that needs to burn everything down and start again.

I can’t articulate enough how bad the Texans are. They looked decent in the first half against the Seahawks and just pissed it away. Davis Mills might not be as bad as I thought but he has no playmakers. They have no draft picks. This team needs a new coach and to trade Watson for a shit ton of picks and start over.

How are the Falcons winning games? Oh, I know. They play terrible teams and somehow beat them. This is another team where I don’t know what they do well.

The Raiders after losing by 30 the first time against the Chiefs decided to go back with the same gameplan. They lost by 40. The Raiders are not a good football team.

Lamar is now hurt and the Ravens are MASH unit. They kept it competitive against the Browns and cost me cover because Baker Mayfield plays scared – even with a lead. I don’t know what can make me bet the Ravens at the moment. If they were playing any other decent team this past week, they would’ve been blown out.

The Detroit Lions are a cute story. You have to give it to Dan Campbell. This team really plays for him. This is the type of team I want to take at home getting a bunch of points. But only if they are healthy.

The Chargers seem to have gotten their mojo back. They still need to be able to contain the run and have no home field advantage at all. I’m surprised Staley has not found a way to sure up that defense. Their style of defense will match up well against the Chiefs. Thursday night’s game is pivotal and will be telling.

Speaking of the Chiefs. Good win. They got the favorable defensive matchup that they can exploit. Take away the two Raiders games they dominated and they still look lethargic.  

The LA Rams lost the stats battle but beat the Cardinals. Two turnovers were absolutely pivotal and swung that game. They are now dealing with a massive COVID outbreak. I wouldn’t say the Rams are “back” yet.

Denver took care of business against a bad and sick Detroit team. This is a good sign from a legit playoff contender. As long as we aren’t asking Teddy to do too much, I like being on Denver.

Washington is dealing with a massive COVID outbreak that had them short handed against the Cowboys. I applaud the effort to come back in the 2nd half against Dallas but I think that said more about the Boys than it did about The Football Team.

Aaron Rodgers is and should be the NFL MVP. He probably won’t be but as Green Bay gets healthy they are hard to ignore as the team to go through for the NFC title.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Broncos, I believe they should be 6.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Broncos in Denver, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 3.5 point favorite (accounting for a Denver 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 5.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Ravens should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be an 8 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.