Quick Week 2 RECAP & Thoughts

With duds by the Saints and Dolphins it was overreaction week in the NFL. The most common theme of this past weekend was teams bouncing back. The Bills. The Bears. Titans. Even the Vikings (to an extent). As I’ve always said, never look too deep into one week in the NFL, it’s just not that great of a data point.

So, yea, my favorite play of the week got incinerated. The Bills pounded the Dolphins. Tua even went out with a rib injury and Jacoby Brissett played most of this game. My main takeaway here is that the Fins just didn’t show up. They had chances to make this a game, even with Brissett. When they couldn’t capitalize and then started turning the ball over, it got late quick. Josh Allen completed 51% of his passes, had a rating of 75.2 and has the 23rd overall QBR rating this year. Is that good?

Sigh, I think I might be done backing Carson Wentz. Dude is just so jumpy. It makes you feel anxious backing him. Red Zone turnovers, taking sacks and generally just holding on to the ball too long. He does it all! The Rams shouldn’t have won this game. The sheer ineptitude of Wentz combined with some pretty lame playcalling from Frank Reich propelled the Rams to victory. The Rams are still not good at stopping the run. They will be exposed for this when faced with a smart opponent that will exploit this weakness.

Bucs / Falcons was way closer than a lot of people thought (not me). Then, Matt Ryan was just giving the ball to the Bucs over and over and then I lost my cover. Not sure there’s much to take away from this game. The Falcons might just be bad. Not sure I can back them until I see something positive and that includes from their rookie head coach. He might be in over his head.

Speaking about over his head. Let’s talk about Urban Meyer. There’s talk he’s considering the USC job. We just wrapped WEEK TWO and he’s planning his exit. The Jags look like the worst team in the league and I have them rated as such. I’m not sure this is going to get better any time soon. Bad defense. Horrible Offensive Line. Rookie QB. A coach that thinks he can yell and threaten his players like they were in college. I think Meyer doesn’t make it past this year, his new players know this about him and it has and will continue to effect their play. Even as more than a touchdown dog at home this week to Arizona and I’m not rushing to bet them.

Activate Justin Fields SZN. Dalton gets injured and in come Fields against the Bengals. Fields did just enough to make sure Chicago won the game. Which they should have, as its at home. The true test comes this week at the Browns. The Chicago defense definitely played better than last week but is it because the Cincy line is terrible. Speaking of Cincy, this offense is legit. I’m sold. The offensive line is still a major issue. I will only back Cincy getting a bunch of points.

The Vikings and Cardinals put on a wild show that was only worthy of Gus Johnson and Aqib Talib (and his outfit). While everyone is busy praising the Cardinals and their offense, they also gave up all those points and essentially lost that game before getting bailed out by the Minnesota kicker. I think we shouldn’t fool ourselves about how good Arizona is. Especially, they will get a cupcake this week at Jacksonville. As for the Vikings, they are getting backed one more time before I jump ship.

Look at the boxscore and it shows that the Cowboys beat the Chargers. The reality was that was a super close game where the refs made some hideous calls in favor of Dallas. Also, there were two turnovers in the redzone for LA. Watching the game showed a Chargers team that should have won and covered. They didn’t. That’s giving them line value against the Chiefs this week. The Cowboys did just enough but didn’t look great. They will have a much easier time against Philly this week at home going against a bad secondary.

In what was the game of the day, Baltimore beat KC. I look at it more like KC had an awful fumble and beat themselves. However, the Ravens had balls to go for it on 4th down and ice the game in their territory. All due respect. The Chiefs do not look like they can stop anyone on the ground. I think this is the reason they never cover. The other team can control the pace and flow of their games. Baltimore just had their most important win in years this weekend. They are facing the lowly Lions. While the Ravens beat up on bad teams, I’m worried about a letdown spot here.

The Browns won their game. It was supposed to be a blowout and they didn’t cover. Jarvis Landry will now be lost for a while and Cleveland has had a hard time getting the ball to their receivers. The Texans overall are not as bad as perceived. It’s a bunch of second and third string guys starting NFL games. While they won’t be wowing anyone, these are workers and I expect them to hang around games. This theory can be right out the window now that they will be starting Davis Mills. A rookie, on the road in his first start, on a short week, against what is rated the best overall defense this year. I don’t have high hopes.

The aforementioned team with the great defense is the Carolina Panthers. I put money on them earlier this year for futures thinking that they would find a way to get Deshaun Watson. While that hasn’t happened, Sam Darnold is performing well and looks to be in a system where he just needs to execute. The schedule has been really in the Panthers’ favor, so let’s not get so excited until they play real competition. For now though, I am ON the Panthers. The Saints got steamrolled by Carolina. This was sort of an obvious letdown spot for the Saints. I expect Sean Payton and company to be ready for Bill Belichick and the Pats.

New England did what they do against rookie QBs: dominate. I will autobet on Bill Belichick against rookie QBs going forward until proven wrong. As for the Pats offense, Mac Jones looks good but they should have beat the Jets even worse than what the final score indicated. I like the Pats overall as a team, I just don’t think they have found themselves yet. The rookie QB that the Pats destroyed was Zach Wilson. He looks like he will have major problems until Mekhi Becton is back.

How good are the Broncos right now? I’m not sure, they haven’t been tested. I do know this, Teddy…Covers. He just does. All the time and in most situations (especially on the road). This is proof of the power of just not turning the ball over. The Broncos finally get to play a home game this weekend and will have the benefit of their altitude advantage.

The Eagles had every reason to beat the Niners on Sunday. They looked sharper. They had bigger plays. The key was that they couldn’t convert when it counted in the redzone. I chalk this up to them being a young team with a young coach. San Fran won a game where it had to battle, down several running backs and on the road. This was an important test for the Niners that they passed. They are a legit SuperBowl contender.

I’m not ready to say the Raiders are forreal. I think they are solid with a really good offense, mostly on the passing side. I still think their defense, on the pass defending side, leaves a lot to be desired. I also think the Steelers are not that great offensively. This is because Big Ben is cooked. He can’t shoot them out of deficits anymore. When they do have leads they will have a hard time holding them, as their offensive line stinks and will not help the run game.

The Giants showed me a lot of grit going into Washington on a short week. They should’ve won, not for a terrible penalty. On the flipside, Taylor Heinike isn’t Joe Montana. So, who were the Giants beating? The Washington defensive line is concerning me. I was promised First Class, these guys look like Coach. I think WFT is very feisty and will be backing them with points. I will be laying off the Giants until further notice.

Seattle blew a 2 TD lead at home with the 12th Man in place. Yea, yea, Derrick Henry, blah, blah. This just doesn’t happen. Seattle’s defense may be worse than I thought. I applaud the Titans for finding a way to win, I still do not think I should back them. They are still a solid fade for me.  

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Raiders, I believe they should be 6.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Raiders in Las Vegas, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 5.5 point favorite (accounting for a Raiders 1-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Chiefs should be a 6 point favorite over the Dallas Cowboys on a neutral field. If the game was in Dallas, the Chiefs should be a 4 point favorite. If the game was in KC, the Chiefs should be an 8.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.