Sometimes there are those weeks where you get everything right. There is also the flipside when you get everything wrong and then, there was this past weekend. Where I put emphasis on, my so called “best bets”, I was spot on. However, I was a disaster past that. Lucky for me and my contests that I was right on the things I emphasized.

Overall, we just witnessed a change in the league. Aaron Rodgers looks cooked. Brady didn’t look much better, save for the horrible Rams defense down the stretch. It was one of those weeks that looks like it will make a difference for the title race. Let me explain…

The Bills lost outright to the Jets. However, that’s not even the worst thing that happened to them at the Meadowlands. Josh Allen has a UCL injury, which for those that don’t know, is a Tommy John injury. Now, it might not be as severe or dangerous as a full-blown Tommy John for a baseball pitcher. However, this is bad. It is something he will probably have to play through for the rest of the season. Now, after sustaining the injury, he was still able to throw a ball almost 70 yards in the air. That’s definitely comforting but that could also be adrenaline. It seems that Allen might rest this week and the Bills will have to start Case Keenum. Not the worst thing in the world…for this week. But if they lose Allen for the season, you have to start thinking the Bills are cursed.

I have to give the Jets props. I really do. They are winning games through coaching, defense and game planning. Zach Wilson is still a major liability but this team might be for real. I can’t just dismiss them as a bottom level team anymore. Their defense is keeping them competitive.

The Rams are done. This is not a statement saying I will not be on them at all this year. I might end up on them this week. I’m saying, this is not a top team. The Rams will not be in the mix for the Super Bowl. It increasingly looks like Sean McVay might leave for broadcasting at the end of this year. They can’t run the ball. The offensive line gets owned every game. And Cooper Kupp is the only offense they have. Now, there is word that Stafford is under concussion protocol. This is a mess.

Even though the Falcons lost. They showed me everything I needed to know. On one side you had a good coach that came in with a gameplan and executed (Arthur Smith) and on the other you had whatever the hell Brandon Staley is. As I’ve mentioned previously, I am totally out on this guy. He was a defensive coach that can’t stop the run. He was never able to stop the run and that’s one of the Chargers biggest issues. So while the Chargers won, they get no upgrade from me. Eventually, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be back, which is great. But even then, this defense stinks and that’s a problem that might keep them out of the playoffs.

The Dolphins won another game. Another big offensive performance. Tua and Tyreek are the toast of the league. Here’s the rub though, where is this team going with this defense? Giving up 32 points to the Bears?! Granted, Justin Fields is playing great and that’s cool but if the Dolphins want to be a serious contender, especially in the AFC, they can’t be a zero on one side of the ball.

What can I say about the Bears? I thought they were a horrible team and here we are. They are still a horrible team but Justin Fields is allowed to run around and make shit happen. That counts for something and opposing defenses have yet to figure out a way to contain it. If they can. I still think the defense is trash, so expect shoot outs with this team. The overs will be high in all of their games moving forward.

Minnesota just keeps winning. It’s usually by one possession and after Kirk Cousins almost gives the game away. Either way, they are winning all of their coin flips. They may have even got another coin flip this upcoming weekend with Josh Allen potentially missing. This defense is not built for the playoffs and I will be looking to fade them there.

Oh, the Packers. I am not sure if Aaron Rodgers is totally washed. It’s hard to go from MVP of the league to totally falling off of a cliff. They moved the ball all afternoon on the Lions (as everyone does) but seemed to get unlucky when they got close to the goal line. My two takeaways from this game is that the Packers really need to play with what they have – two good RBs and an accurate QB and that the Lions defense is still bad, even with giving up 9 points. The 9 points allowed is very phony.

Mike Vrabel is in the top 3 coaches in the league. He just is. We have to all agree on this now. The guy goes into KC with Malik Willis at QB, who everyone knows cannot throw the ball at all. And he didn’t throw it (10 passes in an OT game) and somehow, Tennessee still almost beats a top 3 team coming off of a bye. This is Belichick-level type stuff. Going forward, all of my Titans handicaps have to factor in Vrabel.

Philly did not take the Texans seriously on a short week. They gave up a quick early touchdown and ultimately did not cover. This says more about Philly than Houston. I expect Philly to be more focused on Monday night against the division rival, Washington.

How awful are the Cardinals? I’ve been saying it all season and it was really reinforced this past weekend. They were in control against the Seahawks, at home and somehow just let Geno Smith run all over them and let Seattle win and cover. Absurd. Kyler Murray looks disengaged. I honestly cannot believe they paid him all this money to look mad all game. Anyways, Kingsbury still sucks and it will be hard for me to be on them at all for the rest of the year.

The Ravens deserve to be in the conversation of teams that can win the title. What they did to the Saints, in NOLA on primetime was impressive. Down their two top pass catchers, they somehow just decided to run on almost every play. The Saints couldn’t stop it. The Saints also had the worst play calling I’ve seen in awhile during that game. Andy Dalton didn’t have a meltdown and yet, they somehow weren’t all that competitive. The Saints offensive coordinator is not good. I expect him to continuously make the wrong calls.  

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bills are currently my highest rated team and they are 8 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bills played the Browns, I believe they should be 8 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Buffalo is playing the Browns in Cleveland, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 6 point favorite (accounting for a Browns 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be a 9.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be an 8 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be a 12 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.