It seems pretty simple right? Basically just a little better than half. You need to be just a little better than half to be profitable at betting sports. I mean, it’s a 50/50 proposition, right? Either the Mets win or lose. Either the game goes over the total or it goes under.

Wrong. You HAVE to overcome the vig. The juice.

You have to overcome that tiny cost the bookmaker charges to do business. But you don’t mind, because you figure either, you’re smart enough to win enough to cover that charge or that its kind of a tip for the service.

Well, this is the only number you need to know: 52.4%. This is the percentage you have to be correct just to break even when the book is charging -110 juice. And that is only if you are betting the same amount on EACH game. If you are mismanaging your cash flow or you’re chasing to get even, you’re number to hurdle profitability might be even higher. Here’s the math below, courtesy of John Culver via Medium (10/20/18):

Let the expected value (EV) of a wager be defined as:

EV = W(p) — L(1-p)

·        W = potential cash winnings ($)

·        p = probability of winning (%)

·        L = potential loss or amount risked to win W ($)

·        1-p = probability of losing (%)

You risk $11 to win $10 if Team XYZ covers the spread.

$10p — $11(1-p) = 0

To solve for p, set the expected value or expected profit equal to zero.

p = $11 / ($11+$10)

p = $11 / $21

p = 0.5238 or apx. 52.4%

 

So what can you do? You think you’re pretty good at picking winners. You have a gut instinct just telling you that the Vikings are gonna cover on the road against at beat up Denver team. Well, you have to follow the numbers. If the stats are saying to back Denver, you should also be asking your self qualitative questions like how do the Vikings do on the road? Does Denver have a bunch of injuries concentrated on one unit on their squad? Handicapping is a blend. It’s sort of a holistic art that feeds off of news as much as it does off of stats.

As we go on our journey with this site, it is important to take note of the most important number we must be acquainted with. It is the goal to perform better than this number, all while having fun along the way.