This team stinks! The Jags are slated to be the worst team in football, which is confirmed with their lowly 4.5 game win total. Jacksonville is coming into the year with Gardner Minshew as their starting QB. They have let go or traded every key piece from their vaunted defense from a few years ago. And just today, they have waived Leonard Fournette, their former first round draft pick (after no team in the league wanted to trade for him). Yea, sure seems like they’re “Tanking for Trevor”. All that doesn’t mean we can’t make money betting on or against them!

By now, everyone knows that “there’s no tanking in the NFL; if you don’t go full speed, you will get hurt.” In a savage combat sport like the NFL, this is absolutely true. However, there are other ways to tank, you can take the “Major League” (the movie) route and set up the team for failure. Well, I’m pretty sure that’s what’s happening in Jacksonville. The Jags brought in Nick Foles last year to finally give him the starting job he’s been coveting. Well, he immediately gets hurt, in comes Gardner Minshew and a legend is born. The hair, the porn stache, the scrambling, the unexpected victories…But here’s the catch, he’s a 6th round pick. Other than Tom Brady, no other 6th round pick has ever worked out. Brady is an anomaly. If you’re good, you just don’t get drafted in the 6th round, it’s that simple. The Jags are going to start Minshew when they easily could have went out and signed Cam - way before he was even a thought for the Patriots. Why? They. Want. To. Lose.

Prior to my writing this article they just outright released Leonard Fournette, who was drafted 4th overall just five years ago, and that’s after trying to trade him all offseason. Instead, the Jags will be going with some combination of Ryquell Armstead, Chris Thompson and Devine Ozigbo (I swear I’m not making that one up). Yuck. They still have DJ Chark and have brought in the do-everything talent of Laviska Shenault and while I like their upside in fantasy, this team will not be a hard to stop on offense. This is all coming a year after they finished 24th in offense DVOA. On the opposite side of the ball, gone are Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue, Calais Campbell and Marcell Dareus. Coming into the season PFF has the Jags defensive unit ranked 26th. I believe they are worse than that.

I lean under on the Jags but there’s no way I’m touching an under 4.5 win total, that’s just way too low. Never go under 4.5 games, for any team, even one tanking, ever. A few lucky bounces and any NFL team could win 5 games. However, I will probably be betting Jags games over their totals. Due to this bad defense, expect the Jags to be down, a lot. They will need to throw to get back in it, which will eventually lead to more turnovers. More turnovers will lead to more scoring for both teams involved. This year I expect the Jags to be their old selves.  

No Season Total Play. Lean Under 4.5 wins.