Quick Week 9 RECAP & Thoughts

I was in front of the 49ers, Atlanta, Houston and Pats line moves and somehow finished a bit down for the week. The joys of the NFL.

First off, fuck Tyrod Taylor. The hell was that? Every single time Scott Hanson cut in on that game he was turning the ball over. He also threw one of the worst interceptions I’ve ever seen towards the end of the first half, which led to a Dolphins TD. There wasn’t many of those. My take away: these teams both suck and I should probably not back shitty teams playing other shitty teams. Outcomes can be hazardous.

The Titans just out-physicaled and pushed around the Rams. I really think they punched the Rams in the mouth and they weren’t ready and just never recovered. Whatever it is, it’s pretty amazing that the Titans continue to win these big games. My love for Mike Vrabel had weened earlier this year, but it’s right back.

Oh the Bills. I faded them coming into this year and felt vindicated after Week 1. Thou shalt not take victory laps too soon in the NFL. Then they went on to beat shitty teams with an early win against the Chiefs (which now doesn’t look so hot). I still think Allen isn’t an MVP candidate this year. I think he has / will regress. Also, no chance I bet Buffalo in the playoffs. They can’t run the ball at all and are completely one-dimensional. Keep this in mind when they face the Pats next, Belichick will most certainly exploit this.   

As for the Jags, they still stink and have not shown me anything. I’ll chalk that win up more to the Bills malaise than the Jags team.

I also believe the Rams had that sort of game too. They probably took the intensity down when it was announced that Henry was out. Stafford threw two quick picks and it was over early. I still think this is a top contender.

The Bengals were the number 1 seed in the AFC just two short weeks ago. [Laughing so hard I’m crying emoji] Yea, that wasn’t gonna last. They got trounced and it was due to them losing big upfront. That offensive line is still weak. The Browns just beat them upfront and that’s all that mattered. Fade the Bengals when they have a massive line disadvantage.

Indy covered a big spread, even when they tried so hard to give it away at the end. It’s hard to determine who the Colts really are. They aren’t always the bumbling awfulness of Carson Wentz, though they can be that. Overall, this is a good team. When Wentz isn’t under major duress, he occasionally shows glimpses of that 2017 season.

The Jets were down to their third-stringer on Thursday but still managed to put up points. I lean on the side that most of the offense came in garbage time and not to take too much from it. I don’t love Mike White but I do think he’s auditioning for his career and will play his ass off.  

The Giants won a tough one against the Raiders. This was truly a coin flip game that could have went against them. I think this was more about the Raiders being overwhelmed by the last few weeks and being on the road. I like the Giants as a dog getting key numbers. It is hard to back the Giants every week. They are hit or miss.

Umm…I don’t think the Chiefs will just get it back and turn the light switch on. The more and more time goes by with them looking awful, the more I don’t think they will “click”. While the defense is still terrible and only looked good because Jordan Love had no capability to adjust, the offense is broken. Until Mahomes can be patient and take what the defense gives him underneath, volatile outcomes will continue. You can’t tease the Chiefs; too variable.

I can’t take too much from the Packers performance. This is a good team with Rodgers and a bad one without. Say what you will, but LaFleur just wins games. Dude might actually be a good coach.

With Justin Fields playing better and his performance on Monday night, the question has to be asked: how does Nagy have a job? How on earth did he even consider starting Dalton over him? To save their investment in Fields, the Bears must fire the front office and Nagy. Anyways, I think the Bears offense will get better with time. I think the upcoming bye helps.

Sam Darnold got hurt and will most likely be benched for the rest of the year. I can’t wrap my mind around how bad he is. I honestly think that there’s value in PJ Walker. He can’t possibly be worse than Donald. That makes me think Carolina is undervalued right now.

The Pats are the Pats. They are winning and Belichick does what he does: destroy Sam Darnold’s soul. While I think they are poised to potentially win the AFC East, don’t get it twisted, the Pats are average. This is an average team with a rookie QB, a great coach / gameplan and a solid defense. I really can’t wait to bet them against the Bills.

New Orleans had an off week. I’m not surprised. It was a divisional opponent and they are starting their third string QB. I expect to see Taysom Hill starting or used much more going forward. Sean Payton is an excellent coach and this defense and offensive line is top notch. This is a bet-on team in my opinion.

The Chargers right now are a better idea than they are a football team. No one was more all in on them than me, however, this defense can be gouged. I’m shocked given that Brandon Staley is a defensive guy. The issue with this team is they can’t stop the run. While this might not matter against below average teams like Philly, this will cause them issues against run-heavy or run-centric teams.

I don’t understand the love for Philly by the sharps. I really don’t. They can run the ball and have good line play. That helps but in today’s NFL, they need to go vertical. The Eagles just can’t do that. Hurts isn’t good enough in that sense. Anyways, this secondary is bad. Against good passing teams, you fade Philly.

Pittsburgh managed to hang on and win against an extremely mediocre Bears team. Yay. The Steelers are not a serious contender. They do not deserve to be in consideration as one of the good AFC teams. The defense carries them, which is fine but Ben is cooked. Tough to lay points with Ben barely able to get the ball more than 15 yards down the field. As always, it is best to back Tomlin and the Steelers as dogs.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Broncos, I believe they should be 6 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Broncos in Denver, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 3 point favorite (accounting for a Denver 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 6.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Ravens should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be a 8.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.