9/28/20 Value Bet: Today I’m not giving the conventional best bet. Instead, I am going with a value bet. In many ways, every bet is a value bet. No one bets if they do not think there is a plus expected value. And if they do, that’s a straight up degenerate. But I digress. I am taking the Miami Heat at 3-1 to win the NBA title. While the Lakers are generally considered the better team, I do not believe they are 3x better as this price suggests. Yes, LeBron and AD will unquestionably be the best players on the floor in this series. However, you can make a case the next 3 - 4 best players play for the Heat. Bam Adebayo is playing totally out of his mind right now and will be a problem for the Lakers to D. The Lakers are not very good at guarding the perimeter and that’s where the Heat excel. The Heat might have been the best team overall thus far in the Bubble. Spoelstra is undoubtedly the better coach here and knows LeBron (whether that matters much, we’ll see). Throw in the hunger and attitude of Jimmy Butler and I like the odds. Do I still think the Lakers are going to win the series? Yes, I do. But I make this bet because of the value. Gimmie the Heat to win and LeBron to lose yet another Finals for 3-1.