The Broncos are one of the biggest conundrums coming into this NFL season. Who are the Broncos? Are they still a defensively-oriented powerhouse that is winning games by fundamentals and a solid running game? Are they the new young offensive upstart waiting to break out? Is Drew Lock a legit NFL starter and can he support these offensive weapons? I believe that if you know who the Broncos are (or who they will try to be) during this season is the key to unlocking their 2020 handicap.

Lock started 5 games last year and went 4-1. The one loss, to KC, he was awful. He went 18/40, 208 yds, 0 TD / 1 INT. Now, I’m prone to believe that was more a function of what KC’s defense does well (interior pressure) against what Denver does poorly (offensive line). Pro Football Focus has the Denver line ranked 14th coming into this season. So coming into this year, they are middle of the pack.  This is positive news for Lock, who I believe will be middle of the pack himself this year. And this will help the Broncos offense be more than serviceable. They drafted what many considered the top WR in this stacked class, Jerry Jeudy. They brought in Melvin Gordon to create a real nice 1-2 punch with Phillip Lindsay. Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant will give Lock options at about 4 different reads per snap.

The defense is thought of to be this tough unit, thanks to past performance. Gone is Chris Harris and in is AJ Bouye and Jurrell Casey. Von Miller is still around and is joined again by Bradley Chubb (remember him?). Denver was the 13th ranked defense DVOA from last year and I expect them to be better with the new additions and defensive minded coach. The real problem with the Denver D is the division they play in: getting the Chiefs and the stacked Chargers twice each. Also, the Raiders offense is no cakewalk. I get the sense that this group will end the year as a top 10 unit, which combined with my bullishness on Lock, should mean I like the over on wins here. Well, not so fast.

I’m not fully sold on Vic Fangio as a head coach. He lacked the instinct and operational knowhow last year to put him in even the top half of coaches in the league. The Broncos also play in the second hardest division in football, the AFC West. They almost always split with 2 of the 3 teams in the division every year. It should be noted that while I’m bullish on Drew Lock, he’s young and does not have a first round draft pedigree. I do think I will be on the Broncos a lot this year, especially if they are in the underdog role. As always, I’ll be on them early in the season at home – other teams won’t be conditioned early on to play in Denver’s altitude. This is a blind system for me every year: playing on Denver in their first two home games. I will avoid the season total play and instead just lean over. If I were to bet a future on this team, it would be for them to make the playoffs, but at +180, the value just isn’t there. I’d need at least 3-1 for them to make the playoffs to put anything down on that. In fantasy, I’m avoiding the Gordon / Lindsay backfield (even though, I expect Gordon to get more play). The only pass catcher that interests me is Fant, who could be had late in drafts or is going free.

No Season Total Play. Lean Over 7.5 wins.