Does the NFL ever disappoint in regards to entertainment? Comebacks, storylines, drama, you name it. It’s really so good.

Some of the uglier dogs on last week’s card came through. I realize the Jets took a miracle, but you know what? I’ve been on the other side of that collapse more times than I can remember. So, I’ll take it and move on.

Thankfully, I mostly avoided the Cardinals / Raiders game. I was on the Raiders and it looked like they just stopped playing defense, assuming they had it won. They should’ve covered too but the refs called an egregious defensive pass interference on 4th down when Kyler Murray ran out of options. That saved the game for the Cards who then tied it and won in OT. While Kyler Murray looks like a video game on tape, this Cardinals team stinks. Their secondary is trash sauce and the offense can’t get anything going without Hopkins.

While I think the Dolphins deserve the praise they are getting, no one seems to be looking at why they were in that large of a hole in the 4th quarter to begin with. With two receivers that run blazing fast, it’s going to be a recuring issue of defenses being gassed late in games. I don’t think this will be the only time you see Tyreek and Waddle go off in the 4th quarter of a game this year. Also, Mike McDaniel might be a better coach than was anticipated.

I was on the 49ers and had Trey Lance as my starter in 3/3 fantasy leagues. I was upset when he went down so early in the 1st quarter of Sunday’s game. However, when Jimmy came in, I actually felt better about my chances to cover the game. I upgraded San Fran based on Jimmy taking over. He might not have as much “upside” as Trey Lance but he gives the team a much better chance to win. San Fran is now a top 5 team in the league.

As for Seattle, this might be the worst team in the league. Outside of two very good receivers, they have the worst talent in the NFL. Be careful when betting them as favorites or without getting at least a full touchdown.

Carson Wentz is the biggest Jekyll and Hyde QB in the league. He is so schizophrenic. Not just from game to game but from half to half. It’s nearly impossible to gauge the Washington team correctly.

The love for Detroit has gone way too far. I really do like Dan Campbell, DeAndre Swift, Amon Ra St. Brown, etc. but this is a team that hasn’t won 8 games combined in the last 3 years. Let’s not get too crazy. I love the effort though. Let’s see how that secondary holds up to a pissed off Justin Jefferson this weekend.

The Vikings were another team everyone was too high on. Yes, the offense is really good. The defense is still not there. They will absolutely give up points to good teams. I am not taking too much away from the way Cousins played on Monday night. It’s a rare opposing QB that can go into Philly on a Monday night and do well.

Let me get something straight. Everyone is already giving up on the Colts because they have lost two divisional games? Last week they lost in Jacksonville (where they never win) and the week before they tied a Houston team on the road? They haven’t played a home game yet! Chill. They had no legit receivers this past weekend! A team doesn’t go from a Super Bowl contender to dogshit in two weeks.

I’m not sure what to make of the Broncos. I still think they are talented. I don’t think Russ is washed. I do know this: Nathaniel Hackett is probably the least prepared / worst head coach in the league. That kind of stuff makes a difference.

The Buffalo Bills were the best team coming into the year. They have had two dominate performances. They are still the best team in my opinion. Has anyone considered that the Titans might just be pretty bad? I was low on them coming into the year but they really have shown me nothing.

As I showed with my pick of the Cowboys – you cannot overreact to a QB change. Yes, Cooper Rush is not Dak Prescott. Also, Dak Prescott is not Peyton Manning. He was picked in the 4th round.

The Bucs won their game against the Saints but the Bucs don’t look right. I’m not saying they are bad. However, they might not be as good as we thought. Same goes for the Packers. Funny, they play each other this week.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bills are currently my highest rated team and they are 7.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bills played the Browns, I believe they should be 8 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Buffalo is playing the Browns in Cleveland, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 6 point favorite (accounting for a Browns 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be a 7 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be a 9 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.