The Indianapolis Colts have one of the best rosters in football. The offensive line is the best per Pro Football Focus. The team signed Philip Rivers in the offseason to hopefully bring some veteran presence and reinvigorate the passing game that withered without Andrew Luck. Make no mistake though, Jacoby Brissett is probably one of the best backups in the league and is more than serviceable. Between Marlon Mack and rookie Jonathan Taylor, the run game is secured. Deforest Buckner and Xavier Rhodes have been brought in to improve the defense. I like the Colts to win this division.  

Last year, the Colts were 19th in offensive DVOA, nothing to brag about with the best offensive line. However, I think that gets turned around this year. Yes, Rivers is a gunslinger and is prone to soul crushing interceptions in key moments. But Rivers doesn’t need to be a hero in this offense. TY Hilton is still around and after a disappointing year, he gets the much more accurate Rivers throwing him the ball. There are weapons on this team. I expect Jack Doyle to get his fair share of targets (think Antonio Gates) in this offense. Michael Pittman has been drafted to help a receiving corps that has also brought in Parris Campbell. This should be a top 10 offense and I feel the market is not valuing it as such.

The Colts D which was ranked 17th last year gets a big boost with Deforest Buckner at Defensive Tackle. This guy can get after the QB and that is a big deal in the AFC South, where all the QBs have rushing credentials. The real problem is the secondary, which was suspect last year and hasn’t gotten much better. Xavier Rhodes is washed and was getting burned on a weekly basis last year. On a positive side, the Colts have the easiest schedule in the NFL per Warren Sharp. I am a big believer in building the team through the lines and the Colts should be able to get to 8 wins off of their offensive line alone. My only hesitation about going over the 9 wins is the history of the AFC South. All of these teams normally beat each other up and splits will probably be expected with the Texans and Titans (not the Jags, they stink).

Any time the Colts are an underdog will probably be a bet-on situation for me. This Indy team is as “safe” as they come. They will most likely be in every single game this year based on talent alone. I don’t however, think there’s any value in -190 to make the playoffs.  They most likely will make the playoffs, but one key injury could derail the team (think anything bad happens to Buckner). Instead, the Colts are perfect situational betting team and I will treat them as such. Philip Rivers always has at least 2 let down games a year and they have become easy to spot. Finally, I expect to be leaning under on most of their games. The strong run game will eat clock, while Frank Reich will rein in Rivers’ wild tendencies.

No Season Total Play. Lean Over 9 wins.