The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL. There is no denying this. There is no deficit they can’t overcome. They have the best quarterback in the league in Patrick Mahomes. The skill position players are otherworldly – Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and the rookie, Clyde Edwards Helaire. Andy Reid is easily a top 3 coach. They are coming into the 2020 season with a target on their backs and have to overcome a strong division to try to repeat.

I am not going to try to handicap the Chiefs offense. It is scary good. This is a team that came back from 3 sizeable deficits in last year’s playoffs, not only to win, but in 2 cases, to blow their opponents out. Points could be put up in a flash. From a fantasy angle, I like Mecole Hardman this year. I think he will be the number 2 WR in this offense. While Sammy Watkins has a first round pedigree, he’s untrustworthy. Anyone who read that Bleacher Report article this offseason knows he’s not wrapped too tightly. CEH is very interesting, seeing that they used a first round pick on him, however, I don’t think I can bring myself to pick him in the first half of the first round. I know this is an Andy Reid offense and he’s going to be THE guy (similar to Brian Westbrook) but I need for him to prove it to me. I will instead jump on the CEH bandwagon in DFS early on. Also, here’s your yearly reminder: do NOT pick Patrick Mahomes before the 4th round in your draft. If he falls to the 4th round, do it, otherwise let someone else miss out on a 2nd WR or 3rd RB.

The Chiefs defense is what is interesting. They did lock up Chris Jones this offseason – easily their best defensive player (and highest graded player according to Pro Football Focus). It’s everyone else that’s the issue. The team was 14th overall in defense last year but 29th against the run according to Football Outsiders. To put it bluntly: I do not trust the Chiefs to stop anyone. This lack of confidence in the defense is masked by having a QB that is so dialed in that he just signed a half a billion-dollar contract.

The season total is nose-bleed high at 11.5. There is no value in betting this season win total, even if you think the team is historically good and poised for a Patriots-style dynasty. Sharp bettors do not bet the odds-on favorite in this manner. The Chiefs are +650 to win the SuperBowl and a measly +300 to win the AFC – no thanks! Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not saying it is wise to bet against the Chiefs, but I will be picking my spots this year. Any time a team is so public and so overinflated, it produces value. Also, do not lose sight that Andy Reid is the master of fucking up clock management. This means when you are betting the spread: beware. Let me be clear, I do think the Chiefs are poised to repeat this year. They are keeping most of the same core from last year, they are stacked and if anything, they’ve gotten better. My strategy this year will be to sit back and find opportunities to bet with or against the Chiefs situationally (if there are cluster injuries or a let-down spot).

No Season Total Play.