Week 9 RECAP

As we get into the 2nd half of the NFL Season, something different is happening. In no prior years do I remember a season where one team (Chiefs) is clearly the best team in the league, however, seem like they can lose any game against any team. Beyond the Chiefs there is a sizeable gap between them and the next team (Ravens). Maybe it’s the weird COVID year we are living through. I dunno. It just feels like we are in for an interesting post-season.  

The NY Football Giants won a football game. They won a game by a FG where the other team had five turnovers and lost their starter a quarter of the way through. Is that good? One thing you have to know when betting the Giants is that they show up and play for Joe Judge. As for Washington F.C., they will be starting Alex Smith for the foreseeable future, as Kyle Allen is done for the season with a Dak-esque injury. I think it’s really great that Smith has come back from such a brutal injury but he shouldn’t be playing football right now. I fear for his safety. That being said, I don’t know if it’s the rust or if he’s done but he didn’t look great on Sunday. The Dallas Cowboys almost pulled off the upset of the season. Instead, they lost in the last second to the Steelers. While it seemed that the Dallas defense is better, I beg to differ. I believe that the Pittsburgh offense might not be very good. While Garrett Gilbert seemed to look OK, don’t be fooled, he’s a 7th round draft pick. There is tape on him now.

The Packers did what they had to do. They went out and obliterated the 49ers. The same 49ers that are down to multiple practice squad guys at key positions. Listen, I upgraded the Packers. Yes, Rodgers is having himself a year. I still am not all the way in with this team. It seems every time they play a somewhat even decent team, that team has multiple high level injuries.  The Vikings kept rolling along by bulldozing the Lions this past weekend. Dalvin Cook is really good at tackle football. He’s so good that he makes sure Kirk Cousins doesn’t have to throw the ball a lot. That’s a sound strategy. I would be looking to bet against the Vikings when they are playing a solid run defense. I’m cool if I get beat because Kirk Cousins shredded me through the air. As for the Lions, how does Matt Patricia still have a job? He won’t at the end of the year but my god, this team never improves. Anyways, this team makes no sense and I have no clue when I could back them. I will steer clear for now. And that brings us to the Chicago Bears. We are at the point of the season where I am clamoring for Mitch Trubisky. Anyone has to be better than Nick Foles is right now. This team managed a grand total of 10 points until a late garbage time TD against this shitty Minnesota defense. They can’t run the ball either. At least if Trubisky was in the game he could run and make things happen.

The Bucs did not show up against the Saints. I don’t know if this is a Bruce Arians problem or a Tom Brady problem. While the Saints did play much better, they did not show me anything special this past Sunday night. They basically just showed up. After two lackluster efforts from the Bucs, I expect Brady to come out in Fuck You mode this upcoming weekend. I decided to bump up the Saints for their performance this past Sunday night but I have yet to be wowed by them. The Panthers put up the fight of their lives and still couldn’t beat the Chiefs. The Panthers play for Matt Rhule and Teddy Bridgewater is a cover machine. While I have been down on the Panthers all year, last week was a perfect spot. You know what’s a bad spot? This upcoming week against Brady and his FU tour. The Atlanta Falcons are really good at outscoring teams but still have no defense. That’s not to say that you can’t bet on the Falcons, it’s to say, only bet on them in situations where they can just outscore the opponent at will.

The 49ers got smashed in primetime. In fairness to them, they had nobody and can’t really compete against good teams. Because Kyle Shanahan is such a good coach and their offense is predicated on a very specific run scheme, I believe the Niners are betable, but only with the right numbers. The Seattle Seahawks’ defense is historically bad. Even with Jamal Adams back in the fold, this team just can’t stop anyone. It was pretty telling that the Bills didn’t even attempt to run the ball this weekend and Josh Allen had over 400 yards passing. I will feel comfortable being on Seattle when they are at home playing against an offense that can’t put up a ton of points on them (if that exists). The Arizona Cardinals played a great offensive game. However, their achilles heel seems to be their defense. They allowed Tua to run wild on them in his first road game as a rookie. I believe there are better days ahead for the Cardinals, as Kyler Murray really is one of the true special players in the NFL. I am not sold on Kilff Kingsbury though. His decision making seems to be extremely shoddy and it basically lost them the game this week. Yes, their kicker should be able to hit a 49 yarder but with the Konami Code at QB; two downs to get one yard shouldn’t be a problem.

So, after their lackluster win on Monday Night, my running question has been answered: the Pats are not good. This team really does nothing well. If Bill Belichick was not the coach, they would not get the respect they do in the betting markets. The Jets really should have beat the Pats, but they didn’t. Mostly, because the Jets are absolutely terrible. While watching the game on Monday, it struck me: Why the hell is Frank Gore still playing professional tackle football? What the hell is wrong with Adam Gase. It’s pretty obvious that he will be fired by the end of the year and there is no reason he shouldn’t be playing LaMichael Perine and other young players. At this point I would be shocked if the Jets didn’t go 0-16. Tua Time seems to be going just fine! But beyond Tua, this Dolphins defense and Brian Flores’ coaching is speaking volumes. The Dolphins are a legit contender and should not be taken lightly. The Bills played their best game of the year on Sunday. They did everything right and beat a contender. Sean McDermott crafted the perfect gameplan and it worked. Unfortunately, for the Bills: not every team has the Seattle defense.

The Steelers did the bare minimum this past Sunday and beat the Cowboys. This says more about the Cowboys than it does about the Steelers. The Pittsburgh offense still doesn’t look right. They were not able to establish the run or get a consistent pass game going. Maybe they were taking the Cowboys and their 4th stringer lightly or maybe this offense is smoke & mirrors (just like they’ve been all year).  The Ravens also managed to win a game as road favorites. Similar to the Steelers, the Ravens offense also looked extremely underwhelming. Lamar Jackson is going to need to throw the ball consistently for the Ravens to progress in the playoffs. So far, there is no evidence that Jackson can handle that type of offense.

The Titans needed a scoop and score to beat the Bears. They gave up a total of 17 points (7 of those in garbage time) but their defense still ain’t good (the Bears offense is bad). I like the Titans spot tomorrow at home against the Colts, but it is very hard to back this team if they can’t stop anyone. As for the Colts, they have a Phillip Rivers problem. It’s easy to imagine how good this team would be if anyone other than Rivers was brought in this past offseason. Sidenote: for such a good offensive line, it should not be this hard for Indianapolis to run the ball. Either way, as long as this defense is healthy, the Colts have a shot. The Jags really started Jake Louton on Sunday and were competitive. I do not write that to tell you to bet the Jags. I write that to tell you to fade Houston. The Texans defense is basically nonexistent and there is already talk of JJ Watt not coming back. Play the opposing team Team Total overs against the Texans. You’re welcome. Oh, before I forget: the Jags are basically the worst team in football, but the Jets seem to actually be trying to go 0-16.  

Denver has been following a pattern the past couple of weeks: get down by a very large margin and then score a bunch of points. This is not a strategy for winning football. I just want to know where their vaunted defense went! The Chiefs won a game they had no business winning. It seemed like they were just going through the motions to get to their bye. I do not take away too much from that game, other than the Chiefs can still find a way to win if they are not at their best. The Raiders managed to beat the Chargers because the Chargers (Anthony Lynn) ran two obvious-as-hell fade routes to the end zone in 2 consecutive must win situations. I don’t think I have it in me to bet on Anthony Lynn ever again. As for the Raiders, if you could run on this team, you could beat them, handily.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 8.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the 49ers, I believe they should be 8.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing San Francisco in San Francisco, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 5.5 point favorite (accounting for a 49ers 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be a 7.5 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be a 10.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.