Week 8 RECAP

Sorry about the delay on this. Has there been anything going on?  

How about the Giants? We were spot on with our +12.5 bet on Monday night. Say what you will about this team (and I do); at least they play hard. For the most part, their defense isn’t as awful as I expected (18th overall DVOA) and that is a testament to their coaching. The Cowboys on the other hand have a serious motivational issue on their hands. While the defense played better and forced 4 turnovers from Carson Wentz, they are still in shambles. They are going full on sports movie this weekend and starting a practice squad QB against the Steelers. Let’s have a moment of silence for Vinny Nooch. Ok, enough of that. Dallas should get Dalton back next week and pending on the number and the spot, I will probably be looking to back them, as they have been left for dead. As for Philly, yea, they won AND covered but man was that ugly. It’s probably best that they are on their bye. The healthier they get the more I will be prone to backing them. The defensive line is really good and pressure on the QB always keeps you in games.

The Packers got upset this week at home against the Vikings. This was another great gambling lesson. It was “obvious” to take the Packers. However, every gambling axiom pointed to the Vikings: divisional game, off of a bye, getting almost a full TD (but never getting to +7 – very telling) and the Packers were in an obvious look ahead spot for a Thursday game against the team that stopped their Super Bowl aspirations. I get it, betting Minnesota is UGLY, however, in those scenarios it needs to be Minnesota or pass. On the Vikings side, they looked good and they established the run. That’s really the only way I can back this team. If they could run the ball and shorten the game. Their defense is still suspect and is prone to the big play. If Cousins has to throw a majority of the game, the Vikings are a fade. The Lions got blown out by the Colts and lost their best receiver. The Lions tend to lose games like this for the past 15+ years. It’s simple, back the Lions when they are getting points against suspect defenses. Other than that, stay away. The Bears lost a heartbreaker at home to the Saints. This boils down to offense or in this case, lack thereof. Nick Foles is not the answer. Trubisky might actually be better but he somehow got hurt during some horseshit gadget play that was called by Nagy. Not to mention, their run game is a ZERO. I still don’t understand how they did not try to trade for Jameis. But I digress. I think this week, Foles can get it going against the Tennessee defense ranked 24th against the run.

The Bucs did just enough to get past the Giants this Monday. As warned, this team was most certainly looking ahead to their super important divisional game against Tampa. And you almost have to love the Bucs at home in that contest. I mean, have the Saints been good? Speaking of New Orleans, they squeaked by the Bears and their inept offense but this does not look like a contender. With Michael Thomas still out this week, I don’t like their chances against Tampa’s rock solid D. The Panthers have finally come back down to Earth after losing outright at home to the Falcons. That’s 3 losses in a row right now and they are staring at KC this weekend. With McCaffrey coming back and expectations being lowered, now might be the time to buy on the Panthers. Just in time when everyone else is off of them! The Falcons won another football contest. Say what you want about Atlanta but they have an offense that will keep them in every single game. Remember that when handicapping this team. I’m also of the mind that their defense isn’t that bad. In fact, they are pretty good against the run. Beware.

The 49ers entire season went down in a spectacular set of ashes this past weekend. They lost Jimmy G and Kittle which is bad. But they ultimately lost big to the Seahawks. The line in this game started last week at +3.5 and was down to Niners +1 by game time. This indicated that all the money was on SF. I was on San Fran. But I disregarded one pretty significant fact: their secondary is trash. The Seahawks didn’t really have an NFL-viable RB, so they ended up exploiting that low-key trash secondary in a major way. The Seahawks will be getting some help on the defensive side of the ball this week with the addition of Carlos Dunlap and Snacks Harrison. Jamal Adams seems to be coming back too. Temper your expectations for Buffalo’s offense this week. The Rams went to Miami and got served. The Dolphins are a serious playoff contender this year, even with the transition to Tua. The Dolphins figured out what some teams learned long ago, the way to throw Jared Goff off of his stride is pressure. Even with an absurd 21 targets, Cooper Kupp only managed 110 yards. The reality is that the Rams need to run the ball to be effective. And they haven’t been able to run the ball.

My question from last week was answered. The Pats aren’t good. They most certainly aren’t a playoff team. And while the urge is there to totally fade them, can you possibly pass up Belichick vs. Gase this week? It’s like Bobby Fisher vs. the wino in Washington Square Park. I think the bleeding stops for the Pats this weekend at the Meadowlands. But can they get margin? The Jets got blown out the frame again. This time by the best team in the league. I actually downgraded the Jets more. I have been hesitant to do so, given that they were already 8 points worse than an average team, but they don’t even try. At this rate, they are cruising towards Trevor Lawrence. They even began selling off pieces like Avery Williamson. Hard to back the Jets, even with a ton of points. As for the Dolphins: Tua looked like a rookie and didn’t do much this weekend against the Rams. Aside from that, this Dolphins defense has been balling. Be careful just setting Arizona as your suicide pick this week. The Miami defense is punching way over their weight and should be treated appropriately. The Bills are not the top tier team that we saw early in the year. They managed to beat the Pats but it was a slog. In fact, they have had a hard time scoring over the past few games. And this is against some bad defenses (Titans & Jets). The Bills defense is also struggling, so far bottom 3rd in the league. I would have a hard time backing the Bills in a big game right now.

And the Browns did some Cleveland things this weekend. As a team with a rushing identity, they couldn’t establish the run against a bad Raiders run defense. These are the kinds of games good teams figure out a way to win. The fact that Cleveland couldn’t win it, says a lot. Ok, I give up, the team that took the biggest bump up this week was the Steelers. That was a BIG win. They did everything they needed to do against the Ravens in a big time spot. I just want to make one thing really clear: They were outgained almost 2-1 by the Ravens, were down for a significant portion of that game and scored most of their points off turnovers. I know what you’re thinking: that’s what good teams do. I know. I just wanted to point all that out is all. On the flipside, the Ravens offense just doesn’t look the same. Maybe the league has finally caught up to Lamar Jackson? Maybe he needs to be able to throw to beat teams. It’s realistically a bit of both. The Ravens are still one of the most complete teams in the league. But they have proven time and again that they can’t win the big game. The Bengals beat Tennessee outright in what was the biggest upset of the week. But if we delve deeper, was it? Joey Burrow is a good quarterback. Bengals fans are beginning to see this. Bettors know him as Joey Covers after now going 6-2 against the spread. For as many holes as the Bengals have, you have to like their future. It’s hard to bet against this team!

The Titans couldn’t take care of business in a game they were 7 point road favorites. In hindsight, they had no business being 7-point road faves. Tennessee’s defense is just bad. The only way I can bet this team is by making sure they can really put up numbers against the opposing defense. The Colts really ran it up against the Lions this past weekend. The Colts play well against middling and bad teams. This week they will have to face the Ravens after a bitter loss. While the Indy defense remains elite, they are getting awfully thin at WR. In a game where Philip Rivers will have to win with his arm, I would be weary backing the “sharp” side this weekend. Jacksonville was on a bye but somehow managed to get worse. Gardiner Minshew apparently has been hiding an injury to his thumb for a while and now they are making a change at QB. In steps another 6th round player.  I don’t like the Jags’ prospects. Lucky for them they are playing the Texans.

Denver came through for me after a massive comeback. As I said on my handicap: Anthony Lynn is a “clown, clown, clown”. That turned out to the correct handicap. In credit to the Broncos, they did just enough on offense to aid in the comeback. However, my takeaway was that the Chargers defense might not be as good as I thought. Denver is usually a good bet at home. As for the aforementioned Chargers: just, wow. Herbert is the truth, yet they are still managing to flub games that they are leading by double digits. Pretty wild. I will have to pick my spots betting this Chargers team but until they get rid of Anthony Lynn, they will never be a serious contender. KC managed to cruise right past the Jets this past weekend. Mahomes really got it going and showed off his arm. They are favored again by double digits, at home, right before their bye. Do not be surprised by a let down spot. The Raiders have played much better than I expected. I do not know if this is a function of the spots they’ve been in or are they good? I’m leaning towards them getting situationally lucky and will bet them as such. Listen, if you have the ability to fade Jon Gruden, how can you not?

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 9 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the Bears, I believe they should be 9 point favorites. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing Chicago in Chicago, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 6 point favorite (accounting for a Bears 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be an 8.5 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be a 11.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.