Quick Week 7 RECAP & Thoughts

I went perfect in the Thursday game and first half of Sunday. Blanked on the second half of games. Overall, OK week ATS.

A lot of byes this past week, so all of those teams did not move up or down the rankings.

I know, everyone is going to ask how the Browns and Cardinals are power ranked the same. Guess what? A healthy Case Keenum under his ex-QB coach, Kevin Stefanski, is equivalent, if not better than a healthy Baker Mayfield. Keenum had one of the best statistical seasons of all time under Stefanski. That’s no hyperbole. Nick Chubb coming back. The Browns are a good team, even banged up. As for Arizona, I’m still not fully bought in. Them kicking a depleted Packers asses won’t prove much.

Tua is a disaster. The Dolphins are just always too hurt or can’t overcome their shitty offensive line.

The Falcons could potentially have a much better record, if you could believe it. I don’t trust them and their defense is horrible. Arthur Smith might be a bad head coach / great coordinator.  

Houston is the worst team in football. With Davis Mills, at least. With Tyrod back I might upgrade them 3.5 points. Mills with this group of second and third stringers (and that coach) is that bad.

The 49ers might just be bad. I love Kyle Shanahan but can’t reconcile how awful they look when they are favorites. Jimmy G did himself no favors but he was playing in an atmospheric river. This team might be too far gone now to recover this season. That secondary is just awful and if it ain’t fixed soon, this team will be hitting the atmospheric showers.

The Bengals are real. At least they are competitive. I’m not quite ready to crown them champs. They are a fade against teams with a solid pass rush. The NY Jets are not one of those team.

The Jets are hideous. If Mike White and Joe Flacco are starting and Tyrod is back in Houston, the Jets are the worst team in football. (Bonus: they are already the worst organization in American professional sports).  

The NY Giants are Jekyll and Hyde. It’s mostly their injury report. If people are playing, play on. If everyone is out, play off. Daniel Jones is showing me things. Gettleman and the Clapper need to be fired and build around Danny Dimes in an upcoming draft that is lacking QB talent.

The Ravens got absolutely steamrolled by the Bengals. It’s not because the Bengals are a top 5 team like ESPN would lead you to believe. Now, I didn’t think that the Ravens would lose that game but what an absurd line that was. They were laying 6.5 in a divisional game in an obvious let down spot for them. Fade the media.

Are the Chiefs broken? I dunno. I’m not an Xs and Os guy. But here’s what I do understand. You can’t keep doing the same thing and continue to succeed in the NFL. The league is too sharp and will figure you out. They just will. I think Andy Reid might be distracted and not making adjustments. Add that to an absolutely hideous defense and you get this.

The Las Vegas Raiders! I was ALL over the Eagles last week and couldn’t believe this outcome. I think this says more about the Eagles than the Raiders. Maybe just hiring a 35-year old head coach that’s never called plays before to lead a team in one of the toughest markets in the country wasn’t a great idea? Maybe Jalen Hurts just isn’t improving. Maybe their secondary blows and the linebackers aren’t much better. I’m low on this Philly team. As for the Raiders, I’m not convinced they are real…yet.

I think Matt Nagy is faking having COVID to avoid being fired. Not kidding. I honestly believe this. The fuck is wrong with this team? He shoulda been fired at halftime. I refuse to believe that Justin Fields is so bad that he started for one of the 4 perennially good teams in college football. Why is he not running more? Why are the Bears running so much against the Bucs (best run defense in football)? Why are they running when they are down by 21+ points against a weak secondary? So many questions. I’ll tell you what, if he can’t coach this weekend and Bill Lazor leads them to a win or Fields looks good (or even competent), Nagy shouldn’t come back.

There is no saving Sam Darnold. I thought with good coaching and the right environment, maybe just maybe, he would be salvageable. Nope. Carolina has made a huge mistake and effectively screwed themselves out of the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. This offensive line is offensive. I’ve also lowered my views on Matt Rhule as a head coach.

I’m really glad Tennessee won these past two games. They are overhyped, a lot. I’m full fading them. This defense is terrible and bad defenses are not to be trusted (see: Chiefs).

The Saints did JUST what they had to do to win the game. Sean Payton is a smart cookie: he knows if Jameis doesn’t turn the ball over, they win. They won.

Seattle is really bad with Russ. In fact, I think they are bottom of the league bad with Geno in at QB and this poor defense.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Raiders, I believe they should be 6.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Raiders in Las Vegas, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 5.5 point favorite (accounting for a Las Vegas 0.5-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 6.5 point favorite over the Washington Football Team on a neutral field. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be a 9.5 point favorite. If the game was in Washington, the Browns should be an 4.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.