Week 16 RECAP

After the penultimate week of the football season, things are much clearer in the playoff picture. And most importantly, the interests of the teams are now in plain view. Flat spots and lookaheads will most certainly be less this week. And best of all, there will be overvalued teams and too much of a point spread tax on “must win” situations. As the old saying goes, if you’re in a must win situation, you must not be that good. I’m going to keep it somewhat light this week and try to just focus on angles or edges that I see.

But before we get to the recap, I have to say it again: these coaches are way too fucking cute nowadays. The Chiefs were playing the Falcons this past Sunday (and trailing) when they faced a 4th and 1 in Atlanta territory. So instead of running the ball, running with the semi-mobile Mahomes, entrusting Mahomes to throw for a first down or just doing a simple screen pass, the Chiefs did a double option with Sammy Watkins throwing to Mahomes deep. Yes, that actually happened and Andy Reid called it. The NFL is wild, man. This takes me to another point about the Chiefs: they seem to be playing for fun and to keep themselves interested. What else can you possibly call it? They’ve won 7 straight games and only covered once  in that span (last week as a -2.5 favorite against the Saints and that line was -3 most of the week, which woulda been a push). They seem to be in coast mode and now will be taking a week off, along with the 1st round bye, which will have them coming up against playoff competition rusty. Something to keep in mind.

Also, this is the first time since about week 2 that the Jets weren’t the worst team in my power rankings. Improvement, even somewhat subtle, is a good thing.

I give up. The Packers are for real. Aaron Rodgers is most certainly this year’s MVP. They show up in spots where it is expected they are flat. This is wild. I LOVED Tennessee last week. They would be going into Green Bay, with the most fearful runner, against a Packers team that has a hard time stopping the run. It seemed like a dream setup and was even more enticing with all the snow. Instead Aaron Rodgers blew the fuck up and was raining TDs to Davante Adams. Rodgers looks like he’s been playing effortless and now they have to win to get the 1st round bye. Scary. The Bears keep beating shitty teams and are now poised to get into the playoffs with the thinnest of margins. They can assure themselves a win by beating Green Bay but can get in with a little help. As much as I’d like to, I can’t back the Bears as home dogs this weekend. They have looked too good against bad competition and it looks unsustainable. The Lions are trash. What a garbage organization. Everyone associated with them should be ashamed. There’s no scenario I can bet the Lions this week. The Vikings stink but should be better next year. That defense needs to get a year older and wiser.

The Saints trucked the Vikings on Christmas. The only thing I learned from that game is that the Vikings defense still stinks. I learned nothing new about the Saints. In fact, what I do know is that if New Orleans doesn’t luck into the #1 seed, they are not going to win in Green Bay in January. Period. Periodt. Tampa Bay rolled the horrible Lions this weekend and are now in the playoffs (and hit the over 9.5 wins for the season win total). Beyond, not trusting this Tampa team, I still can’t believe they managed to win over 9 games this year. Tom Brady is playing out of his mind and not like a 45 year old QB. Atlanta is still playing hard despite giving away games at the last second. As for Carolina, I love this team going into the last weekend. Their coaching situation is in tact and this is a team heading in the right direction.

The 49ers beat Arizona in a very important game for them, while starting a 3rd stringer. As I’ve said over and over again, Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the league and is hard to bet against, in any situation. The Rams lost again, this time to the Seahawks in a very winnable game. Jared Goff looks horrible and won’t be starting this week’s game due to injury. I still like their backup going against Arizona and KIiff Kingsbury. Just think, this weekend you can bet Sean McVay vs. Kliff Kingsbury and you will be getting points. Looks like Christmas is coming twice. Seattle still has an outside shot for the #1 seed but I don’t see it happening. Even if they beat the Niners this week, they need a lot to go right for them. I’m leaning to taking all the points with the Niners this week over Seattle.

The Pats stink. I’m not even trying to drop this at Cam Newton’s feet, it’s certainly a collective effort. There is barely any talent on this team and Newton looks washed. The fact that Bill Belichick has won 6 games with this team is quite an impressive feat. I’d be very cautious backing them in the Meadowlands against a Jets team that is suddenly rolling. The Dolphins pulled out a miracle win against the Raiders on Sunday night. Most people are blaming Gruden for the loss but I think it was Miami being really good that got them the win. If it’s not blatantly obvious by now, Fitzmagic is much better than Tua. Fitzy has COVID and it looks like it will be Tua all the way in a must win at Buffalo. As for Buffalo, they are cruising and look (and are according to my power rankings) like the 2nd best team in the league. Everybody is focused on how this is such a must win for Miami and Buffalo has nothing to play for blah blah. I don’t want to fade Brian Flores and at the same time don’t want to buy into the must win narrative for Miami. I’ll be passing that game. The Jets beat a Browns team with no wide receivers. Yay. The Jets have locked in the #2 draft pick. Great? Any ways, this is the worst organization in American professional sports and I kinda like them against at Bill Belichick-coached Pats team this weekend. Yuck.

Pittsburgh came back against the Colts to cement their division. They will be resting most of their starters this weekend and will be trotting out Mason Rudolph against the Browns. I think Pitt definitely needs this “bye week”, however, I have a hard time imagining betting on Pittsburgh on the road in ANY destination in the upcoming playoffs. The Browns had all their receivers on the COVID list and lost outright to the Jets. I really need to understand how that happened. If there was one coach in the entire NFL that I would trust just having two great running backs and 2 good tight ends along with Baker at QB against the awful Jets, it would be Kevin Stefanski. He loves the 2-TE sets and actually wants to establish the run. My guess is the loss of the receivers was too sudden that it didn’t give him time to gameplan. Any ways, the Browns are in one of those “must win” situations and I think the tax is too high. I’m on the Steelers this weekend in the Mason Rudolph revenge game. God help me. The Ravens have basically been steamrolling bad teams and are headed to the playoffs. Baltimore loves to get ahead and put their foot on the neck of inferior competition. I expect nothing less against the Bengals this weekend. Cincinnati managed to beat Houston on the road thanks to Brandon Allen’s career day. The fact that Allen managed to throw for over 350 yards against ANY NFL defense, tells me that Houston has the worst defense in football. Yes, I’m aware that statistically the worst defense is the Lions but to allow Brandon Allen that type of game is a special kind of terrible. I really thought that Cincy was the worst team in football until this past weekend. I kinda still think that and will be fading them this weekend. I still can’t believe Brandon Allen had that type of day!! 28 of his 29 completions against the Texans were under 15 yards!!!! I really can’t believe that. Here’s what I do know, Jonnu Smith should be played in DFS this weekend. You really can’t ignore a trend like that.

Titans are in another one of those “must win” scenarios this weekend. You already know how they did this past week (read above). Tennessee is laying over a TD on the road in a divisional game. Yes, I will be on the Texans this weekend, even if I hate it. This line should be 6.5. I will close my eyes and play Houston. I especially want to play Houston after JJ Watt’s impassioned speech about showing up and doing your job. I really don’t think the Texans CAN do their job but I suspect this is Watt’s last game in a Texans uniform and the team will show up. Plus Deshaun Watson against a bad Titans defense isn’t the worst thing in the world. The Jags suck and got blown out by the Bears and Mitch Trubisky. Now I’ll be getting the Jags in a division game getting over 2 TDs in another one of those “must win” games for the Colts. As bad as the Jags are, I will blindly take the points here. Yes, I think the Colts win the game but they have no need for margin. As for the Colts, I really can’t believe they blew that game to the Steelers. Now, they could be on the verge of an 11 win season and being kept out of the playoffs. Sucks.

Denver managed to lose this past weekend to the Chargers and cover. It’s obvious that Drew Lock isn’t the answer and I suspect this team will look a lot different next year. They are somehow underdogs to the Raiders at home this weekend. I still don’t understand. I know I have the Raiders rated lower than everyone else this year but they had NO business being in that game this past weekend against Miami. If Brian Flores starts Fitzpatrick, even just for the beginning of the second half, the Raiders aren’t close. Their defense is god awful. I will be on Denver again this weekend getting points against the Raiders because of one simple truism. Who the hell are the Raiders to be laying points on the road in a divisional game? The Chargers have somehow won 3 in a row and play in KC this weekend. They are favored because the Chiefs are sitting most of their starters (which I believe is a mistake). So, what’s the deal here? If they win, does Anthony Lynn keep his job? I certainly hope not. Either way, this will be another one of those perception games, where, “oh, KC is sitting everyone, give me the Chargers!”. No thanks. I will gladly take Andy Reid and Chad Henne vs. Anthony Lynn and Justin Herbert. This may be the last time we ever get to bet against Anthony Lynn as a head coach! You think I’m giving that up?

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 8 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the 49ers, I believe they should be 8 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing the 49ers in San Francisco, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 5 point favorite (accounting for a 49ers 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be an 8.5 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be an 11.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.