Week 13 RECAP

Ok, I need to talk about NFL coaches nowadays. I can go on forever about the Anthony Lynns, Kliff Kingsburys and Doug Pedersons of the world (and I will) but I’ll save that for the recap below. I want to talk about play calling. Yes, play calling, the cornerstone of managing a game. See, 10 years ago, things were less complicated. If there was a 3rd & 1 and you had a workhorse running back, you handed him the ball and had the offensive line push and give him the yard. That’s not to say things were better 10 years ago. They most certainly were not. Teams never went for it on 4th down and the pass / run ratio was like 40/60. But the play calling was at least straight forward, even when the decision making wasn’t. So what has changed? Well, the coaches have gotten a little too cute. Exhibit A: Kliff Kingsbury at least 3 times every week decides to have Kyler Murray throw on 3rd or 4th and short. Why? Why would you waste his best strength like that? Exhibit B: All these fucking gadget plays with like 2 men in motion, a snap to a non-quarterback and then some bullshit sweep. Again, why would you do this? If your quarterback or running back makes $20M a year, let them handle the ball. No need for the 2nd string TE to get a look in what is normally a pressure situation. It’s like having the trainee pilot land a plane in a blizzard, while the guy with over 600 flights under his belt is sitting there watching. This needs to stop. It’s not good for the game, for fantasy or for bettors. It happens at least 3 to 4 times a week. Play calls so awful, you just can’t forget them. Remember, Mike McCarthy going for a fake punt on his own 30 yard line, using some asinine jet sweep on Thanksgiving? Yea, I will never forget.

This weekend involved having to take some gross teams to win. Like, if the thought of putting money on them makes you feel slightly ill, it usually means you are on the right side. I was all about the Jets this week. It was so much value (over a touchdown), at home, versus a fugazi Raiders team. I was on the moneyline and everything. I sure felt like a genius with about 35 seconds left in that game. Then came the most absurd play call of all time, which lead to the Raiders winning outright in a game they had no business winning. A few takeaways here: 1) cute play calling by Gregggggg Williams cost the Jets a game they should have / did win. 2) this is why it’s tough to bet horrible teams in these disgusting situations. 3) Gregggg Williams will never get another NFL coaching job again. 4) the Jets might be so despondent after that loss (which was really a win) that they may no longer play hard for the rest of the year. Other gross plays this weekend involved taking the Washington Football Club of DC, who did win outright. Shit, I was even on the Eagles and they should’ve covered, had it not been for allowing a 70-yard run by Aaron Jones. The best plays you make will normally be the ones you feel the most reluctant about. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’ll probably be laying the massive number against the Jets this weekend, but that’s because of the specific situation I just mentioned with the Jets. Other than that, I may be done laying big numbers – I’m looking at you Minnesota and Kansas City. Just keep in mind, if the play is as gross as these Yeezy’s, it’s probably the right play.

A quick word about this Week’s upcoming card. I hate it. Sometimes the card is just funky and you aren’t feeling it. That’s ok. Take a break. Go do your Christmas shopping. You don’t (and absolutely shouldn’t) bet every game. Be careful this week.

Just last week, I spoke about how the Giants defense was showing out. I mentioned that their defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham should be getting head coaching looks. And what do the G-Men do? They go into Seattle and beat Russ and the Seahawks outright with Colt McCoy. It looks like Danny Nickels will be back for this weekend’s game against the Cards. I don’t know if I’ll be on the Giants as home dogs, but I certainly can’t be on the Cardinals. Either way, I love the Giants defense now and they have become a real factor in their games. The Cowboys got embarrassed again, this time on Tuesday Night Football. Their run defense is horrible and as Troy Aikman noted on the broadcast, they aren’t improving, at all. This is most certainly an indictment of Mike McCarthy. Now, he will definitely be the coach again next year, but he will have to turn around things really quickly or he will also get sent packing. While the Cowboys are bad, they are facing a Bengals team that is worse this week. The Football Team is the feel good story of the year. I’m a Giants fan and I find myself rooting for them. A great defensive front, Ron Rivera is so likeable, the Alex Smith comeback, all of it is so damn good. It was a great win against Pittsburgh, but it is important to distinguish between a winning in a good spot or winning because you are actually good. Washington won due to the former this week. Things might not be so sweet for them playing the Niners this week. The Eagles offense is completely broken and they mercifully benched Carson Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts this past weekend. Unless Jalen Hurts is a superstar who can lead them to the playoffs and they find a way to trade Wentz to the Colts this offseason, Doug Pederson is most likely gonna get shown the door. The Eagles can’t really move on from Wentz due to his contract and the next coach will be tasked with “fixing him”. Hurts showed a spark but I’m guessing he will be more of a fantasy asset than a real life football one.  

Green Bay looked like they dominated the Eagles on the scoresheet. They didn’t. In fact, they came out totally listless in the second half, again. The Packers only covered because of a wild 70 yard touchdown score with time running out. I’m still not sold on this Green Bay team, even if I have them high on my rankings. Ok, back to extremely cute play calling. Why the hell was Mitch Trubisky back to pass when the Bears needed to run the clock out? They were trying to run the clock against one of the worst rush defenses in the league, at home. David Montgomery was actually balling against the Lions. And what does Matt Nagy do? Call a pass play for his largely inaccurate QB. Of course, Trubisky throws a pick and the Lions come back. Glad I teased up the Lions but that was ridiculous. The entire Bears organization will be starting at ground zero come the offseason. The Lions showed some fight, even without Golladay and Swift playing. It sure sounds like they hated Matt Patricia and were happy to see him go. If both Golladay and Swift play this weekend, I’m leaning Lions against the Packers. Eww, I know. One of my biggest plays this past weekend was Minnesota. This is a great example why its so tough to lay big points in the NFL. It took all sorts of shenanigans for the Jags to cover. Tip balls going into the end zone for TDs, Dalvin Cook fumbling at the 1 yard line, Kirk Cousins throwing ugly picks in the 4th quarter, you name it. And even with all this, the Vikings still won the game. The sad part is the Vikings were absolutely the right side this past weekend but the ticket didn’t cash. I will still be on the Vikings going forward.

The New Orleans Saints keep finding ways to win games. Taysom Hill looks like he’s competent and the defense is the real deal. You have to think that the Saints are the top contenders in the NFC right now. Very hard to fade this team. Drew Brees should be coming back soon too. The Saints found themselves being really challenged by the Falcons but still managed to win. As for the Falcons, another game where they are playing hard for Raheem Morris. Atlanta is a limited team though. Matt Ryan certainly looks old and they can’t stop the pass to save their lives. It’s imperative you keep these two things in mind if you plan on playing on the Falcons.

The 49ers got run over in their first “home” game in Arizona on Monday night. While their defense looked solid early, they just couldn’t contain Josh Allen. While I certainly think Allen has improved, he was having a real career night. I didn’t ding the Niners too much in my power ratings because I really think Allen’s performance will be very hard to repeat. I will still like betting on SF, as they are a team that plays hard and won’t quit just because they are out of the playoff hunt. The Rams really look like the real deal. Their offense is good enough (and is coached by an offensive genius) and their defense is elite. I bet them because of the coaching matchup between McVay and Kingsbury. Sometimes its just that easy, look at the coaches and if there’s a massive edge, bet the better coach. Arizona never really gave the Rams much of a fight. The final score looks closer than it was due to a garbage time TD. Something is obviously wrong with Kyler Murray’s shoulder. He basically stopped running and that takes away one of his huge edges. For now, I will be looking to fade the Cardinals or pass. I can’t back this team with a hobbled Murray and a shitty head coach. Seattle is average. The sooner everyone comes to grips with that fact, the sooner it will be easier to bet them. Their defense has been playing better but there is something off about this team. While I absolutely love Russell Wilson, it will be hard to play this team on the road in a playoff game. This week will be no problem against the dejected Jets. Russ will be cooking so much, he will have to open a catering business.

While I was on the Pats this last weekend, in hindsight, I should have went much heavier on them. This was probably the last chance I had betting Belichick against Anthony Lynn. Coaching mismatches like that just don’t happen that often in the NFL. The Pats just smoked the Chargers and not even in a conventional way. They basically beat them mostly due to special teams. You don’t normally see a team get so mismatched but the disparity was that wide. I’m really glad Tua is healthy and playing. I really want the Dolphins to make the playoffs because they are a great story and I love Brian Flores. The thing is, I don’t think the Dolphins making the playoffs and Tua playing are compatible. It’s pretty obvious that Fitzpatrick is better. And while the Dolphins covered the spread, I felt that game said more about Cincinnati’s sad state of affairs than how good the Dolphins are. The Bills looked like the real deal by beating the Niners on Monday night. Their defense is playing better and Josh Allen looks like an MVP candidate. I will be hard pressed to not play on the Bills. This weekend will certainly be their biggest test against Pittsburgh in primetime. Oh the Jets. They absolutely tried to win that game and really should have. You have to take their mindstate into account when handicapping them for the rest of this year. While they are NFL players and will try because their next contracts depend on it, I can’t imagine they have any faith left in the coaching staff (assuming they had any in them before). I’m pretty convinced they will not win a game for the rest of this year and will be taking the Jets opponent’s moneyline and tying it to almost all of my picks going forward. This week will be tough because they are giving 13.5 points and the Seattle ML will be astronomical, but I will definitely have to be on their opponents moving forward.

The Steelers finally stumbled on Monday night in what was a very tough spot for them. That line was running in the direction of Washington the entire week. Luckily, I grabbed it at +8. An important lesson here: while I LOVED the WFT at +8 or +7.5 and even a little at +7, I HATED them at +6.5. Yea, they ultimately beat the Steelers but to think that way is the epitome of confirmation bias. We are playing numbers not teams; do not forget that. The Steelers looked worn down but aside from that, an honest assessment needs to be made here. While the Pittsburgh defense is clearly amazing, even after losing 2 really good LBs, the offense is average at best. They can’t run the ball and while they seem to have 4 WRs we are all rotating in fantasy, this offense doesn’t look dominant. Just something to note heading into the playoffs. The Browns look like they are marching right into the playoffs. They smoked the Titans and everyone now has Browns fever. While I was on the Browns this past weekend, I offer a strong word of caution with this team: they have a hard time when Baker is getting pressured. Like, a really hard time. Like, the two games they got totally blown out in this year, the Ravens and the Steelers, were because Mayfield can’t handle pressure. Tennessee can’t get pressure at all and hence let Baker and the rest of the offense operate unimpeded. They play the Ravens this Monday and I would be all over the Ravens but their pass rush has been hobbled of late (Calais Campbell looks hurt). I would be careful with that game. The Bengals would most certainly be the worst team in football if it wasn’t for the Jets. None of the guys in the QB room should be starting NFL games. The offensive line is the worst in football. The defense stinks and the coach is terrible. Even when they had Burrow, there was no improvement. I know they are the Bengals and won’t fire Zac Taylor, but they really should. Not too many takeaways from their game in Miami. This is a bad football team. The Ravens ran all over the Cowboys. This is no surprise as Dallas now owns the worst rush defense in football and the Ravens rush the ball really well. I do not think that the Bengals can rush the ball well and they stink. I’m on Dallas this week. The Ravens seem to be getting better, the true test for them will be in Cleveland this Monday against an average, yet competent defense.

The Titans were good last year because their defense held the line. This year they are a mess because they can’t pressure the QB or lock down in the secondary. This is an average team. I love Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel but I think they are being overvalued due to their run in last year’s playoffs and not what they’ve actually done this year. So, the Jaguars managed to give Minnesota ALL they could handle by taking them to overtime this weekend. Look, sometimes final scores and box scores are phony. This is one of those times. Early on they get a bullshit touchdown off of a crazy deflection. Then they recover a Dalvin Cook fumble right at their own goal line and then Kirk Cousins with a disgusting pick. This team still stinks and I do not understand why so many “sharps” continue to play on them. The Colts look much better offensively lately. However, their defense seems to be wavering. They are still highly ranked but seem to be falling down the charts. I would tread lightly when playing the Colts against a good offense. They are still my pick to win this division. The team the Colts were the Texans, who seem to be going in another direction. The defense is flat out horrible and they’ve now lost their best playmaker in Will Fuller. I love Deshaun Watson but he can’t do it on his own. I would need a really compelling reason (i.e. a shit ton of points) to bet the Texans.

While it certainly seemed that Denver hung in with the Chiefs, that was deceiving. The Broncos managed to get a bunch of 3rd down stops to force field goals, which helped secure the cover. This is definitely a skill and not luck, but this is a team that is going to be disengaged. Their season is done. Drew Lock is headed for backup status and Fangio might lose his job. I’m not sure how hard they will play against non-divisional opponents. The Chiefs are the ultimate talent that doesn’t have the drive to always work hard. There is no doubt in my mind that if they wanted to, they could’ve blown out Denver and the Raiders in the past couple of weeks. I just don’t think they “care” yet. Tough team to back if you know they aren’t going all out. The Raiders are phony. I’ve been saying it all year. Save, for some matchup advantages they seem to have with the Chiefs, this team is average at best. Their defense is terrible and I think Gruden is dated with his game strategy. Yes, I know they “won” that game against the Jets but let’s be real, they lost that game. Now, how confident are you betting a team that clearly lost to the Jets? And now for the Anthony Lynn portion of the article. I don’t say this lightly, he might be historically bad. Like, Rich Kotite bad. How the fuck do get completely blown out at home when you have the better team? I know he was matching wits with Belichick but come on. That was awful. On a good note, they are going to have a high draft pick with that team and a (presumably) much better coach. I LOVE the Chargers next year and will bet them to win the SuperBowl, the AFC Championship, their division, etc. As for now, how can you bet on this team laying points? You can’t.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 8.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the 49ers, I believe they should be 8.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing the 49ers in San Francisco, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 5.5 point favorite (accounting for a 49ers 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be a 7 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 4 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be a 10 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.