Week 12 RECAP

In what was easily one of the wildest weeks in the history of the NFL, football went on. Gambling went on. And finally, the underdogs started barking! And how glorious it was. Aside from some glaring misses (I’m looking at you Chicago), it was good to be fading the public this past week.

The other thing that needs to be discussed is just how god-awful some of the coaching in the league is. While I like to rag on Anthony Lynn, who is horrible coach #1, it’s also the likes of Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Nagy to blame. I have to revisit Lynn’s end of game decision making because it is so epicly bad, it needs its own discussion. OK, so towards the end of the game, Lynn took a time out (one that he will almost certainly need, as his team was trailing by two scores) on 4th down to…punt!?!? What the fuck is that? If you were gonna go for it, I get the time out but to punt? Why not just have Justin Herbert throw up a Mail Mary that would work as a defacto punt if intercepted? Then when Herbert does throw up the Hail Mary with under a minute left in the game and no time outs and down by TWO scores, what does Lynn do? He instructs Herbert to hand off the ball and run with Ekeler. So, they don’t down the ball to conserve the clock, they don’t try a pass into the endzone to attempt to score and they don’t even try kicking a FG, as they were down by 2 scores. Of course Ekeler was stopped, time still running. Next play: Herbert is running an RPO play, which is fine. However, the offensive line is in pass protection and they basically stuffed their own QB before he was able to get a play off. How does Anthony Lynn still have a job? I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. The Chargers are completely un-betable. As for Kliff Kingsbury, the “offensive guru”, Mr. Air Raid, man about town rocking Italian all leather driving loafers…He has continuously done stupid shit with 3rd and short and 4th and short this year. He has Kyler Murray!!! Yet for some inexplicable reason, Kingsbury decides to pass in those situations or even worse, hand off to Kenyan Drake. With the most mobile QB in (all?) NFL history (yes, even moreso than Lamar last year), he is throwing and handing off. Just, wow.

My other takeaway from this week is that you can’t be on a team with a bad offense in today’s NFL. Even if their defense is good. Just look at Chicago. Even though this week they gave up a bunch of points (which were mostly due to short fields from turnovers), they just can’t score. Even in games were their defense is strong, they have been so inept at offense that they can’t take advantage. I can’t imagine that Nagy or the GM, Ryan Pace, keep their jobs after this year. This is also a problem with the Lions. They were up against an absolutely terrible Texans defense but were missing a bunch of key playmakers. The outcome? They got drubbed because they couldn’t score. The effect? Matt Patricia fired.

The Giants are on a winning streak! While the Giants won the game against the Bengals and the lead in the NFC East, they lost Daniel Jones. And honestly, Jones didn’t look good prior to him going down with that hamstring injury. The reason the Giants won was that the Bengals are just flat out horrible without Burrow. That and the Giants defense has completely outperformed this year. Patrick Graham, the Giants defensive coordinator, should absolutely get head coaching interviews this year. Also, Jason Garrett stinks. Now that Colt McCoy is going to be starting, I presume the public will be fading the Giants. I, on the other hand, think that McCoy is a serviceable QB and will be able to do just enough to keep the Giants in the game.  The Eagles have to bench Wentz. They just have to. Do not let the phony (and extremely lucky) cover fool you, the Eagles offense is totally broken. While Wentz might be the cause, I’m in the blame Doug Pederson camp. He’s a bad coach and it starts at the top. Results speak for themselves. Ever since Frank Reich left for the Colts, the Eagles offense has dove off of a cliff. As an offensive coach, Pederson should shoulder all the blame. The Football Team went into Dallas and whipped the Cowgirls on Thanksgiving. Never underestimate a team that’s willing to play for their coach (see: Washington and the Giants). I cannot overstate this: Washington normally has such an edge with their defensive line that you almost HAVE to back them against teams with weak offensive lines; as was the case against Dallas. As for Dallas, I just think they are way too injured to bet on. I would need a large amount of points to back them and certainly can not back them as a favorite.  

The Green Bay Packers had no problem making easy work of the Bears. This honestly had more to do with Mitch Trubisky turning the ball over than the Packers being really good. But, as they say, a win is a win. The Packers were able to take the short fields they were provided and capitalize. That’s all that matters. As for the Bears, at least Trubisky tried some stuff. Unlike Foles that just throws bad pass after bad pass (sometimes into double coverage), Mitch at least was more vibrant. It does seem that he will need to run more for the Bears offense to be effective. If I were Matt Nagy and in danger of losing my job, I would impress that upon Young Mitch. But hey, what the hell do I know? The Lions got steamrolled, at home, on Thanksgiving, on national TV. Matt Patricia was rightly fired after the loss. It’s hard to tell how much of this loss was on Patricia and how much was on the fact that the Lions were missing 3 key playmakers in their offense. This next week’s game is so tough to read. Normally, I would like to be on both the team that fired their coach (Lions) and a team that was embarrassed in primetime (Bears). But alas, they play each other. The Vikings were the right side and did not cover. How do I know that you ask? Well, the Vikings had two fumbles get returned for touchdowns and a muffed punt return that lead to a short field for the Panthers. Despite that, the Vikings won the game by 1. If even one of those three things don’t happen or if those fumbles result in a FG, the Vikings cover. Gotta love gambling on the NFL!!!

The final score sure looks like Tampa kept it close with the Chiefs. Nothing could be further from the truth. Tampa looked outmatched and the Chiefs essentially took their foot off the gas to help Tampa get the cover in this game. It’s safe to say that Brady / Arians < Brady / Belichick. I expect Tamp to look better after their bye. As noted above, Carolina managed to cover against the Vikings in a game they had no business covering. I would be very tempted to fade them this upcoming week but they also have a bye. The Saints beat up on Denver this past weekend. Denver had no quarterback. Even in that fairly significant blowout, the Saints didn’t look great. I am definitely tempering my outlook on the Saints until Drew Brees is back. The Atlanta Falcons are now 4-2 since Dan Quinn was fired. I am not sure if its because Dan Quinn was a bad coach or because the Falcons had a ton of bad breaks in those first 6 games. Either way, I can’t quit the Falcons. I love betting them and if the market is going to continuously give me plus numbers on them at home, then I am gonna bet those plus numbers.

The Niners are one of the best coached teams in the league. Kyle Shanahan is the real deal, unless of course you are trying to hold on to a lead in a SuperBowl. SF went into LA and beat up the Rams, even though they were the less talented and more hurt team. Shanahan kinda owns McVay lifetime: just something to store away for future use. As always, Jared Goff struggled because he had pressure in his face. You have to fade the Rams any time Goff is up against a defense that can put pressure on him. All that being said, the Rams defense is still one of the best in the league. Seattle managed to go into Philly and beat the Eagles. I think that says more about the Eagles than it does about the Seahawks. Russell has basically stopped cooking and Seattle is back to ground and pound. You can’t blame them really, as this is the way they won a title (and shoulda won another one). The Cardinals managed to lose against the lowly Pats. This was a combination of Kyler Murray’s shoulder not being 100% and the ridiculous coaching mismatch between Kingsbury and Belichick. Note to self: if there is EVER a coaching mismatch this bad, you almost always have to bet the better coach.

Belichick is an awesome football coach and finds ways to beat the likes of Kliff Kingsbury. Not much to take away from this game for the Pats, except that they are not a good team. The defense is bad and the offense is middling. Cam Newton didn’t crack 200 yards and the Pats won the game. In fact, the Pats won this game due to special teams. The NY Football Jets played another football game where they weren’t even remotely competitive. They scored 3 points. Now, I know Miami’s defense is really good but damn, 3 points in today’s NFL? Not great, Bob. The Jets are bad on both sides of the ball but it’s hard to tell if that’s do to talent or Gase being a godawful coach. I think we see the Jets last gasp this weekend. They can “afford” to win a game. The Dolphins have a dilemma: do they continue using Fitzpatrick to try to win games or do they trot Tua back out on the field. The reality is that they are in a playoff chase and I’m not so sure Tua’s thumb is as bad as they are letting on. Either way, Brian Flores is a good coach that I won’t want to bet against. The Bills miraculously covered against the Chargers because Anthony Lynn is horrible (it’s kind of a theme here at The Sports Investment Guide) but their defense really has not solidified. Lucky for the Bills, Josh Allen is creative and can make things happen. Unlike last year, the Bills are the sort of team I will be fading in the playoffs.

The Steelers won a Wednesday football game and their offense resembled a MAC school to boot! I know the Steelers are my second ranked team but this train is about to be derailed. Not only does their offense look nothing special, they just lost Bud Dupree, their All Pro linebacker. Most casual fans (the public) will just look past this. I will be betting Washington this Monday because of it. The Ravens did not get crushed by the Steelers even though they were missing 12 players and their MVP quarterback. This is attributable to John Harbaugh and his staff. I am not sold on the Ravens and as it stands today, they are out of the playoffs. The Bengals did not improve by starting Brandon Allen. In fact, you can now make a case that the Bengals are the second worst team in football – sorry Jacksonville. The loss of Joe Burrow is that massive to the Bengals team. The Cleveland Browns are now 8-3 and just managed to not cover against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even worse, the reason they did not cover is due to their own ineptitude and not because the Jaguars played hard. I loved the Browns coming into this year and despite their record, they really look average.

The Titans managed to crush the Colts. I think the Colts and Titans are about even teams but this was just a really good spot for the Titans. I would be buying into the Colts after this dud of a performance. The Titans defense is still shaky and not to be trusted. I feel more confident with the Titans at home than on the road. The Jags are an awful football team and just fired their GM. The coach is next. I would probably bet the Jags the last game of the year but fade them in any other game. They certainly seem like they are trying to tank by starting Glennon over Minshew. Houston won a game on Thanksgiving on the road in Detroit, which is not saying much. The Houston defense is really atrocious. The offense which was basically run on Watson to Fuller is now losing Fuller. Not to mention, the only good player on their entire defense, Bradley Roby, is also being suspended. Fade the Texans.  

Denver got blown out in a game where they started no real quarterback. Nothing to take away from that game. Denver is still playable in some spots, as their defense is decent. The Chargers need to fire Anthony Lynn. The Chargers have lost 16 out of their last 20 one score games. That’s possibly the worst indictment of a coach I have ever heard. How does this guy still have a job? My only guess is that management is letting him sink this team so badly that they have a good draft pick to pair with Herbert. This Chargers job will be the best available job coming up in the off season and I will be betting their over wins if they hire ANY respectable coach. The Raiders looked horrible against Atlanta on Sunday. Their defense is really bad and when the offense can’t get the run going, Derek Carr is prone to mistakes. Atlanta is good defending the run, so that translated to a bad day for the Raiders offense. I think that Raiders are giving way too many points to the Jets this weekend (8.5). Guess what is the sole thing the NY Jets do well? Stop the run.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 9 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the Chargers, I believe they should be 9 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing the Chargers in Los Angeles, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 6 point favorite (accounting for a Chargers 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be a 7 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 4 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be a 10 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.