Week 2 RECAP

It is time to update the power rankings after week 2. Now that overreaction week is done with, it is time to dig in and do the real work. Warning: Week 3 is normally the toughest week to handicap in the NFL. You’ve seen a little bit from each team but not too much. The overreactions have been adjusted for by the bookmakers. Now the real fun starts…But first, thoughts on Week 2.

Injuries, injuries and more injuries! That was the theme of Week 2. I believe that a lot of the injuries were due to poor conditioning resulting from few practices (thanks COVID!). However, it seemed like the field at MetLife Stadium played a role in the Niners avalanche of hurt. It needs to be stated that aside from Quarterbacks, most injuries do not move lines. Very few players in the NFL are worth more than a single point to the line. However, in the case of cluster injuries, you have to make an exception. For example, the San Francisco defensive line just lost two first rounders at the same time. The Panthers and the Giants just lost arguably the best and second best RBs, respectively, in football. That will need to be an exception. As you will see in the power rankings reflected below, there was more movement than usual this week.

We have a new worst team in football: the NY Jets. At this point, it is a matter of when and not if Adam Gase will be fired. The Jets are bereft of talent, good decision making and what I believe will their total undoing: motivation. That is not to say you cannot bet on the Jets, there is value on every team depending on the line, but it will be gross. In other AFC East news, the Bills once again beat an inferior divisional opponent in the Dolphins. While Miami got me a sweet backdoor cover, they aren’t that great at football. I will be looking to play the Dolphins only against worse teams (there’s not that many) or strictly at home. As for the Bills, it is hard to tell how good they are. They’ve beaten the Jets and the Dolphins. I need to see more from Josh Allen & Co. before I can trust them (especially in road games).

The Pats got an upgrade from me this week, even after a loss. They looked great going into Seattle and going toe to toe with the best player in the NFL. Cam almost won a game where he basically only had Edelman as a legitimate tight end. Speaking of Russ, I love him. How can you not? That ball he delivered to DK Metcalf was quite possibly one of the prettiest passes I’ve seen in my life. Seattle has a great offense and as long as Mr. Unlimited is cooking, will put up points. It’s the Seahawks O-line and defense I’m worried about. I will be fading them against good D-lines. As for the aforementioned 49ers, they got a big downgrade this week. They lost two big pieces off their great defensive line, two running backs and their starter Jimmy G. It’s a good thing they are coached by Kyle Shanahan or I would blind fade this team. For now, I’m probably just off of them until Kittle and some receivers return. The most surprising team in the NFC West, the Rams, went into Philly and looked dominant against a hapless Eagles team. I loved the Eagles in that game (mostly due to the number of +1) because the way to beat Jared Goff is pressure in his face. Well, he wasn’t too pressured (only 9 pressures on 45 dropbacks – courtesy of PFF). As for the Cardinals, they look great. Kyler Murray seems to be the real deal and can evade any pressure while making the offense hum. My concern with them remains the defense.

Arizona’s opponent was Washington, who lost in an obvious let-down spot. Note to all readers: you cannot back a bad team coming off a surprise win at home, on the road to a better team the next week. You just can’t. I still love the Washington D-line but other than Terry McLaurin, this team is bottom of the pack. Speaking of bottom of the pack, the Giants are horrible. I expected them to be bad and bet their Under season wins coming into the year. Now, they don’t have Saquon Barkley to lean on and Sterling Shepherd is on IR. Things are going to get ugly in the Meadowlands. If Danny Dimes doesn’t look at least competent for the rest of this year, I expect the G-Men to fire Gettleman as GM and draft one of the top QBs in next year’s draft. Sad! The only team worth being optimistic on in the NFC East is the Cowboys. They won despite putting themselves in an awful hole. Their defense is trash missing all these linebackers. I will be looking at Overs with the Cowboys for the foreseeable future. I don’t know what to make of the Eagles, they are beat up and seem demoralized. They have a fairly “easy” matchup against the Bengals this week but if they can’t pressure Joe Burrow and that awful Cincy offensive line – stick a fork in this team.

The team that should have beaten the Cowboys, the Falcons, seem like they are in disarray. However bad the Falcons defense looked in the first two weeks, it should be noted that they played the 2nd and 11th best offenses DVOA. I’m not saying the Atlanta D is good, I’m saying don’t write their obituary yet. The Bucs beat the Panthers and covered! Against this soft Panthers defense, I was not impressed by Tom Brady. I’m sticking by my assessment heading into the season: Tom Brady is washed. 40+ year-old QBs just don’t win too many games in the NFL. TB12 is doing less than Jameis Winston with more weapons around him. Add to that, Gronkowski is the third best TE on this team and I’m fading the Bucs. The Panthers defense might be worse than advertised, bet accordingly. Speaking of 40+ year old QBs, Brees didn’t look good against a bottom 5 defense in the Raiders. It’s a good thing that the Saints overall roster is one of the best in football. This is a team I will only want to bet on at home.

The Raiders pulled off an impressive victory over the Saints on Monday night by dinking and dunking. I’m not sold and will be fading this team. However, one little handicapping note: I might like the Raiders at home with the points. Unlike most parts of the country, Vegas is open. Millionaire athletes can still get in trouble there prior to games. I can see “hungover” teams in the first half. Make note. Speaking of hungover teams, the Chiefs looked out of it for the entirety of the game against the Chargers. I’m chalking that up to being surprised by Justin Herbert starting and not having tape on him. On the flipside, I’m upgrading the Chargers, Herbert looked much better than Tyrod. I will not go too far with the Chargers love though, as Anthony Lynn still makes plenty of suspect moves.

Over in the NFC North, the Lions / Packers game was playing just like I expected up until Stafford threw a disgusting pick six midway through the 3rd quarter that put the cover out of reach. I was high on the Lions coming into this year and so far their defense has been atrocious. Yes, they are eventually getting Golladay back and the offense should improve, however, until that secondary is at full strength, I might be off this team. As for the Packers, I’m willing to admit that I sure look wrong on them so far. I’m still not sure if it’s Rodgers and the offense or the opposing defenses they’ve played but I’m holding off judgment for another week. One call I did get right was the Vikings. This defense lost too many pieces. I’m sure a great coach like Zimmer can get it fixed but they’re a fade until further notice.

The team that trounced the Vikings, the Colts, sure looked better at home. As I stated last week, you can’t overreact to one single week. The Colts still have a great roster and should be taken seriously, especially at home. Another week, another amazing Minshew performance. Look, I still think the Jags are one of the worst teams in the league. My takeaway is you can’t discount their offense. Finally, the Titans had to do all they could to just beat the Jags, at home, as big favorites. I’m worried. Houston lost again but to another great team. Their schedule has been their downfall. I’ll be backing this team and have not lost faith in Watson, who is a top 5 QB in the league.

The Browns crushed me by getting backdoored by the Bengals but they played well. This is a team that could be really good and I expect them to get better. As for #1 pick Joe Burrow, he’s forreal. Eventually, once the Bengals fix that horrible offensive line, Burrow is going to be a problem. The Steelers were unimpressive and didn’t cover against a Jeff Driskel-led Broncos team. I am not buying the Steelers. As for the poor Broncos, who have now lost Von Miller and Courtland Sutton for the year, as well as Drew Lock for an extended period of time, I will be treating them game by game. Oh, and just in case you think I forgot about the Ravens, they are now tied for the best team in football. See my rankings below.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Ravens are currently my highest rated team and they are 8.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Ravens played the Bears, I believe they should be 8.5 point favorites. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Baltimore is playing Chicago in Chicago, according to my Power Rankings, Baltimore should be about a 5.5 point favorite (accounting for a Chicago 3 point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Saints should be a 5.5 point favorite over the Green Bay Packers on a neutral field. If the game was in New Orleans, they should be a 8.5 point favorite. If the game was in Green Bay, the Saints should be a 2.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.