Tampa Bay Buccaneers (o12 -110 / u12 -110) -200 to win NFC South

New Orleans Saints (u9 +110 / u9 -120) +350 to win NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (o7.5 -135 / u7.5 +115) +900 to win NFC South

Carolina Panthers (o7.5 -115 / u7.5 -105) +900 to win NFC South

Ahh the NFC South, home of the defending champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady is back for his 21st NFL season and the starting 22 remains in tact. The Bucs are the only constant in this division though. The Falcons have a new coaching staff and are in limbo between competing and a rebuild. The Panthers have a new QB that’s getting his last real starting shot in the league. And the Saints are umm, I don’t know what the Saints are doing but neither does the rest of the league (more on this later).

Last season on these very pages I shit on Tampa Bay. I thought they didn’t have enough time to gel with no real preseason. I thought Brady was washed. And I thought Bruce Arians was not the man for the job. Well, Brady proved me wrong, again. Tampa caught their stride late in the year and outlasted its competitors in the NFC. Now all of the starters are back and there is continuity. Tom Brady thrives in this environment. Hard to say that I “like” the over 12, since it’s such a high number. But I don’t hate it. Keeping in mind there is now 17 games and the division (and conference) the Bucs are in are soft, I can see this win total going over. You don’t get rich betting overs on futures. I don’t see value in betting any of the Bucs futures because they have the shortest odds. However, with this solid defense and the array of weapons on offense, I will be betting the Bucs early. They will have a jump on the other teams. I’ve  already taken the Bucs -6.5 on opening night vs. the Cowboys. That’s moved to 7. Yes, I still like it at 7. I will be on the Bucs early in the season and begin to fade them late when they become overvalued.

The New Orleans Saints finally said goodbye to longtime QB Drew Brees. They also are having issues with their star WR, Michael Thomas. At bare minimum we won’t see Thomas for the first 7 weeks of the season (if he’s not just outright traded). This could hamper their offense, however I don’t think it does. While everyone is contemplating who starts between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston, I believe it will be a hybrid. I think that Sean Payton knows that he has to be innovative to win. You have to be in the NFL when you don’t have a top 10 QB. That’s the situation here. The Saints defense upfront is solid but they have holes in the secondary that were not addressed this offseason. As the NFL is a passing league, the Saints will not be able to keep up with mostly pass-happy teams, so they have to flip the script. I think we see some wild, scheme-heavy offense that will have Taysom and Jameis alternating. The offensive line is potentially the best in the NFL and will be used to buy time for crazy option plays. I think Alvin Kamara might go totally nuts in this scheme. I truly believe it will take the NFL at least 5 weeks to catch up to what Payton has planned. I will be on the Saints early in the year. I have already bet the Saints o9 (+110). If New Orleans get Michael Thomas back and he buys in, watch out for this team in the playoffs.

New regime in Atlanta with the hiring of Arthur Smith. The team ships out Julio Jones, making Calvin Ridley the unquestioned number one WR of the Falcons. The team also uses an early 1st round pick on a supposed generational TE with Kyle Pitts. The issue in Atlanta is I’m not sure the team knows what it wants to do. While the offense could be much improved under Smith by helping Matt Ryan be in good spots, the defense is still bad overall and won’t be able to stop the other side. I believe the season win total line is just right, as this will be a middle of the pack team. It’s hard for me to get behind the Falcons, as I don’t see much improvement in the defense and I’m not sure Mike Davis and crew will give Smith the production he wants and needs out of his RBs to run that offense effectively. This is a true stay away for me.

Did I mention my love of Matt Rhule? How badly I wanted the Giants to bring him on as head coach? Rhule and owner, David Tepper, have already changed the culture in Carolina. The Panthers are nothing, if not measured and decisive. They believe that their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, can fix Sam Darnold. And while Darnold has looked flat out bad in his first 3 seasons, sporting one of the lowest QBRs in that timespan (ranking 28th, 25th and 33rd overall respectively), he was a 3rd overall pick. I believe there is a pedigree there that will win out. The Panthers believe it too. And Darnold will have weapons surrounding him, unlike with the Jets. He’s reunited with Robby Anderson and gets one of the most underrated WRs in the league with DJ Moore. Not to mention, Christian McCaffery, the best RB in football, will be back healthy. The offensive line is still shaky but the defense is much improved. The Panthers have a top 10 defensive line heading into the year and beefed up in the secondary with the selection of Jaycee Horn. All their young defensive guys from last year’s draft (8 in total!) will be a year older. It’s all going to hinge on Darnold. And I’m betting on the Panthers taking a step forward. I believe Joe Brady can get Sam Darnold to be a league-average QB or better. I think the addition of Terrace Marshall can make this offense hard to stop. Panthers 7.5 wins -115. Panthers to win NFC +4000.