Kansas City Chiefs (o10.5 -120/ u10.5 +100) +175 to win AFC West

Los Angles Chargers (o10 -140 / u10 -+120) +220 to win AFC West

Denver Broncos (o10 -110 / u10 -110) +260 to win AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders (o8.5 -130 / u8.5 +110) +650 to win AFC West

The best division in football. Possibly the best division, ever. Hear me out: if I said that the Chiefs, Chargers or Broncos won the title this year, would you be shocked? I think I can make a case for the Raiders being a contender too. Maybe not title worthy but a plucky type team that make a run deep in the playoffs, similar to Cincy. There is just a dearth of talent in this division. By default, you will have at least someone in the AFC West on your fantasy team. I really believe this is the most interesting division this year.

For the first time in a couple of years, the Chiefs are not the overall favorites. In the past couple of years, they managed to remake their offensive line on the fly but now face the loss of their most dangerous weapon. Will the loss of Tyreek Hill effect their Super Bowl hopes this year? I personally don’t think so. I think that they will still be dangerous with Kelce and a mixture of JuJu / Skye Moore / Mecole Hardman / whoever. Andy Reid is still the most prodigious offensive mind of his generation. The Chiefs always seem to find a way – 2 high safety be damned. There was a stretch last year, where it really looked like the league figured out Patrick Mahomes and this offense. But ultimately, there they were, in the AFC title game, only an epic 2nd half collapse away from a third consecutive Super Bowl. I think the offense will still steer the ship this year but there are real questions at running back. The defense is average, at best,  and will be supremely tested in what is undoubtedly the hardest division in the NFL. I think the Chiefs can and will drop games to their AFC West division mates. I think this is a year of some regression for this franchise and I don’t see them in the AFC title game this year. Chiefs u10.5 +100.

Last year I was all in on the Chargers. I loved the offense, with the young QB, who could throw and was mobile. Two really good receivers. A versatile, win-you-your-fantasy-league type RB. The defense was supposed to be strong with Joey Bosa coming off the edge and Derwin James locking down the secondary. So, what has changed from last year? Well, a lot, but all in a positive way that makes me only like this team more. All those assets are still in place for LA. Plus, the Chargers offensive line really took a big leap last year. Then they went ahead and added two new pieces to the line. If the two pieces on the right side pan out, watch out, because this team is stacked. This is the best overall roster in the NFL. They even added Khalil Mack and JC Jackson. The biggest issue this team had last year was their inability to stop the run and best believe, if they cannot do so again this year, they will be in huge trouble. The Broncos and Raiders can really run the ball and they have to play them 4 times. The Chargers have the 29th overall linebacker corps, per PFF, coming into this year. If this improves, the title is really the only limit. On some level, I believe that Brandon Staley’s job is on the line this year. If this team does not at least make the playoffs, he’s out. With this roster, there are really no excuses. Which leads me to believe, he’s gonna chill out, even if its just a little, on going for it on 4th and 7 on his own 25 yard line. I really think the Chargers are going to find a way to get it done this year. The one thing I despise is that the public is on them too and this won’t be contrarian. The talent on this team is just too good to ignore. (I took an +1100 bet that the AFC Championship game will be Bills vs. Chargers, that I am not making official but really believe in.) Chargers o10 -140. Chargers to win AFC +750. Chargers to win SuperBowl +1400.

Mr. Unlimited, Let’s Ride! The league’s biggest cornball also happens to be one of the best QBs on the planet. In an exit that was a year in the making, Russ is out in Seattle and in at Denver. This move really swings not only the AFC West but really, the entire NFL. This Broncos team was sporting a top 5 roster prior to Russell’s arrival and are now lined to win double digit games. The biggest question with the Broncos will be their defense, which has taken a hit in the last couple of years with players leaving and losing a defensive oriented head coach. But now, Denver has brought in Nathaniel Hackett in an attempt to move towards a more modern offense, which will be very run and gun. It’s in everyone’s best interest to “let Russ cook”. Wilson will go from starting behind the worst offensive line in the league to a league-average line. This is a stacked team with weapons at every position, sometimes two per position. The defense got better with the addition of Randy Gregory and a healthy Bradley Chubb. Patrick Surtain will also be in year 2, helping the secondary. Ultimately, I just think they are in the toughest division and will be tested every week. While I love Russ, I can’t trust a first year / first time head coach to have to learn by fire. This is also a very injury prone team that will need to stay healthy to be effective. They mostly have not shown their fitness historically. Russ might be prone to have his best season and has massive upside. However, this is a team that I don’t have a good “feel” for. No lean but if they win the title, wouldn’t be surprised either.

The Josh McDaniels era begins in Vegas! He’s back in the AFC West, but this time he has a real QB. No more Tim Tebow shenanigans. Derek Carr is the real deal and he is poised to have his best season yet. Everyone knows that they brought in Devante Adams, who, combined with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow will form an aerial assault unit for an accurate quarterback. McDaniels is going to bring the Patriots style with him, establishing the run and mixing in 3 RBs in rotation. Josh McDaniels with a superstar TE is usually a very good combination. I expect Waller to ball out this year. If evaluating teams was strictly based on skill position players, we’d be done here. This would be one of the best teams in the league. But alas, you play the game on both sides of the ball. And the Raiders are bad in the trenches. Their offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL, with the defensive line being bottom third. Their secondary is atrocious due to multiple years of abhorrent draft picks and felonies (by the players that were picked but honestly management should’ve been charged with crimes for those selections). In plain English, this defense is gonna suck ass. I expect the new Defensive Coordinator, Patrick Graham, to coach them up. He was a wizard with the crappy Giants rosters, but still not expecting them to outperform. Also, as much as I love and believe in Devante, Derek Carr is Derek Carr and not Aaron Rodgers. This is no offense to Carr, who played great last season, willing them into the playoffs amongst a swirl of off-field issues. I think the Raiders are going to be fun. I also think you should play this team towards the overs. I wouldn’t touch their season win total, as I think its at the right spot – this is an 8 to 9 win team. It’s just with this division, I don’t see them with an easy path towards the playoffs. It’s possible that the AFC West may have 3 teams in the playoffs this year and that Vegas can be one of them.