The Chargers are perennially a sharp bettor favorite. Every year, you aren’t a “smart” if you aren’t on the Chargers and every year, they find new inventive ways to lose games and most importantly, blow covers. Could this year finally be different? The year the Chargers shed their long time quarterback – Philip Rivers and draft their future – Justin Herbert. The year they move out of their soccer stadium to play second fiddle to the Rams in a shiny new (and most likely, empty) stadium. It will be an uphill battle in a very tough division and with their coach’s job on the line.

Hi, my name is Omar and I am a Chargers bettor. There, I did it. It felt a little like an AA meeting. It feels dirty because that is how this team normally does me. Whether its fumbling games away at the goal line (OK, I was on the winning side of that one) or making hideous pass interference penalties to set up their opponents for a game winning field goal in the final seconds (that killed me!), the Chargers do Chargers things. But there’s many reasons to believe that this won’t continue this year. Gone is gunslinger and turnover machine, Rivers, and in comes super conservative, Tyrod Taylor. Melvin Gordon is gone but Austin Ekler remains, to test if he could truly be a feature back. The good parts of the defense are still there and now they’ve added some key pieces in Chris Harris, Jr. and Linval Joseph. This team is stacked with talent: Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, Derwin James, Joey Bosa, Melvin Engram are some of the names.

Given their tough division and the crazy variance that seems to just ooze from this franchise, I will not be taking their over wins this year. I think they are much better than a .500 team. With a capable QB in Ty-God who will not turn over the ball like Rivers, I expect talent to win out. But something we have to understand about the NFL is there are not enough games in a season to provide a true statistical signal. With enough reps (games played), the Chargers should be competing for the division crown with the Chiefs and be coasting into the playoffs. However, (betting) muscle memory is telling I could only lean on the Win Total over. This team will either totally combust by week 8 and have Herbert starting or go 12-4 and make a playoff run. I’m just not sure what I’m going to get. Ty-God wasn’t tearing up the stat sheet when we last saw him backing up Baker Mayfield in Cleveland. I do think his style will work in LA though. He will be able to get the ball to his playmakers. The ease of their schedule should help: they start the season with Cincy, Chiefs, Panthers, Bucs. There is no reason to think they can’t start 3-1 and go from there. It’s the division schedule that’s hard. But it seems the Chargers always find a way to split with the Chiefs and Denver.

I’m of the mind that if Anthony Lynn doesn’t make the playoffs AND WIN a game, he’s out. So I think Justin Herbert sits. This is good if you’re playing on the Bolts. You get a veteran QB with good skill players and a defense that should catapult from last year’s 21st overall ranking (Football Outsiders) into the top 8. While Lynn will be motivated to win, his decision making will remain suspect – it’s who he is. So, with that I don’t wanna go crazy betting the Chargers but I will be betting them. I can’t quit this team. I expect their history to be etched in the public’s collective minds and thus provide value through the season and maybe even the playoffs.

No Season Total Play. Lean Over 7.5 wins.