Quick Week 5 RECAP & Thoughts

Another bad week. The public had a field day this weekend. When you can win by laying points on the road, how can you NOT take it?!?

Listen, I’m not saying I’m going to be right 52.4% of the time, even though that’s the goal. However, my process can’t waiver. I can’t all of a sudden lay 11.5 points with the Bucs in a letdown and look ahead spot. I can’t overthink taking the Giants +7 against a division rival when they’re “America’s Team” and just covered 4 straight. Square plays win too. The point is that over time, the squares don’t win. Keep in mind that you have to win just a little more than you lose. With that, we move on to Week 6 by looking back at Week 5.

Calvin Ridley decides to not take the trip with the Falcons overseas. That’s the only reason I did not lay the 3.5 with Atlanta. I loved them all week over the hapless Jets, yet I passed the game because of Calvin. Of course the Falcons roll because the Jets are terrible and can’t defend anyone. Matt Ryan is bad when he’s getting moved around the pocket and tricked in the secondary. He’s just fine against a very bad team. Zach Wilson will be a bet ON later this year. For now, it’s bet against or pass.

What a fall for the Dolphins. That was the perfect spot for them. Getting double digits on the road but still close to home. A Bucs team that was probably looking ahead to this Thursday night. Yet somehow they get completely blown out, again. Tom Brady had his best counting stats game of his career. What a mess the Dolphins are. Now they get back Tua, who I think is no better than Brissett. But Tua is being priced like he is.

The Texans played a great game (for them) and still lost. Tip of the cap to Belichick and Davis Mills both. I’ll say it again, the Texans are a team of backups: not great but not horrible. The Pats are average. For now. They may get better but for now, the Pats are super average.

I was not wrong on my assessment of the Cardinals. They were hyped and not worthy of being 5.5 favorites against a tough division rival. I was wrong on my assessment of how far along Trey Lance is. Dude is not ready to be starting in the NFL. Jimmy G will be back starting after the bye and this is a good thing. I expect to bump up my rating on SF once that happens. Also: I’m losing faith in Kyle Shanahan. Sometimes your record is who you are. During his time in San Fran his record overall has not been good.

Joe Burrow got throat punched (metaphorically) and kept going. The Bengals should have won that game against Green Bay. Sometimes the right side doesn’t cover. As for the Packers, I’m not really sure who they are. I feel like they are the NFL Jekyll and Hyde team. They are good but do they care? I’m handicapping them based on motivation going forward.  

My god, what were the Minnesota Vikings doing? Holy shit that was awful. Almost losing to the Lions when you should have been up by 13 and closing out the game. It’s great that they won and all but, wow. As for the Lions: they are in every game. Their coach is crying in the post game speeches. As long as they keep competing, how can you not back them? Even with their hideous defense.  

Cowboys kept rolling. Once they entire NY Giants starting offensive team simultaneously went out of the game, the Giants had no chance. Dallas has covered 4 straight. Troy Aikman pretty much was pleasuring himself to the Cowboys record on national TV the other night. What can go wrong? Speaking of wrong, the Giants who had a chance to be frisky are probably donezo for the season. As a Giants fan, it is time to be out on them with no Daniel Jones. I will probably have to bet them later this season after they are very undervalued.

Lamar Jackson played the best game of his career and the Ravens still didn’t cover. The team that did cover? The Carson Wentz-led Indianapolis Colts. Isn’t gambling great?! In all seriousness, at least the Colts showed a pulse. At least I know its possible for them to show up in a game. Keep this in mind, if Lamar continues to throw like that, the Ravens are a dangerous team.

I do not think that the Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL. Great win versus the Chiefs and will go a long way to their goal of winning a title. I just still don’t fully trust Josh Allen or this defense. As great of a story as they are, there’s no way I bet them over Tom Brady and the Bucs on a neutral field. I don’t think the Chiefs are broken but their defense is an absolute atrocity. I think that Andy Reid and the team caught a break with CEH’s injury. I think they need to run the ball to shorten games and for whatever reason they trust Darrel Williams more to do so.

Chargers / Browns was the game of the day. I was on the Browns and honestly, they should have won that game. I guess Kevin Stefanski did not know he was coaching against a cowboy in Brandon Staley. It’s almost impossible to gameplan against someone that will do anything at any time. My takeaways are the Chargers are forreal. This has now been solidified. I already bet them in all sorts of futures prior to the season but now it’s undeniable. The Browns are still one of the best teams in the league. But they need a statement win. Their just-miss loss to the Chiefs is looking worse and worse every week. Cleveland has Arizona coming in this weekend. Arizona is awful against defending the run. This is a must win for Cleveland in my opinion. Not for the playoffs, they will make that but for being serious title contenders.

I can’t blame the Raiders for putting up that sort of egg against the Bears. All that distraction just two days before the game and it was obvious their heads were not in it. I also did not change my view on the Bears, as their win wasn’t that great, all things being considered.

If Carolina is more than an average team, they absolutely had to find a way to salt away that game against Philly and win. The fact that they lost is a major tell. They will be and play better once McCaffrey is back. But I can’t just keep backing them if they don’t perform. They are at home against the Vikings this week as short dogs. This is a gambling “must win”.

I did not forget to mention Tennessee or the Jags, its just that I have not learned anything new about them from last week.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Patriots, I believe they should be 6 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Patriots in New England, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4 point favorite (accounting for a New England 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Browns should be a 6.5 point favorite over the Las Vegas Raiders on a neutral field. If the game was in Las Vegas, the Browns should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Cleveland, the Browns should be an 8 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.