There is excitement, anticipation and worry headed into Daniel Jones’ second full year. The Giants 1st round QB from last year is coming in with expectations through the roof after he flashed several times last year. Saquon is now a veteran and fully in his prime. The Giants have weapons at WR and TE and even upgraded the Offensive Line. So, the Giants are gonna be good, right?! Wrong. Dead wrong. This defense is about as good as Dave Gettleman’s job prospects in December.

After being clowned for months with picking Daniel Jones 6th overall in the draft, David Gettleman had some comeuppance (at points) during the season. Danny Dimes flashed in his first start against Tampa (23/36, 336 yds, 2TDs, 0 INTs and 2 rushing TDs) and got everyone excited. Here’s the thing, the Tampa secondary was (and still is) trash. He also threw 4 TDs against Detroit and the Jets and 5! TDs against Washington. By now, you might be picking up on a theme…All of those secondaries are garbage. And in several of those cases, the front lines were strong, thus leaving Mr. Dimes no choice but to pass to advance the ball. Now, this is the part of the write up where I tell you the stat you already know: Jones played exactly 0 games with his full arsenal of weapons: Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepherd and Golden Tate. I’m sure that he will benefit having them at his disposal this year. Engram is supposedly healthy and will make matchups very difficult on opposing defenses, as they will have to choose between guarding him or Tate and dealing with Jones’ mobility. The Giants will be putting up points this year, a lot of them. I expect Danny Dimes to progress and I am generally high on Giants players in fantasy. But all this enthusiasm needs to be curbed with the Giants disgusting schedule. The G-Men have the 2nd hardest schedule in football. A quick look shows the Giants could easily go 1-4 or 0-5 to start the season.

The problem here is that the defense got worse. The Monsters of the Meadowlands finished 28th in defense DVOA last year and lost their 2019 1st Rounder, DeAndre Baker (a little armed robbery, NBD).  The entire defense is super young and the Giants drafted even more youngsters. They need for some of them to pop for them to be competitive. The Giants acquired Leonard Williams last year and he might help a little up front (even though he’s kind of been a bust with the Jets but they are a terrible organization) and Blake Martinez this year to help at LB. Dexter Lawrence (another 1st rounder from last year) is back for year 2 and should hopefully live up to his pedigree. The secondary still remains in shambles and that’s after a 30th overall DVOA finish last year.    

I am anticipating the Giants to be in a lot of shootouts this year. Their D will have a hard time stopping anyone; not to mention having to go against Dallas twice, the Bucs, the Ravens and the Cardinals. There just isn’t a route for this team to win 7 games this year. That would take a massive leap on the part of the defense and steady improvement from Jones and the offense. I already bet the under 6.5 a couple of times (yes, I went back for seconds) this offseason. But at 6, the value is diminished. I still like it under 6, but this opens up the possibility of fluke wins to screw you. I believe there are still some under 6.5s lurking around. I would gladly pay the juice (up to -150) and try to find those. Aside from the season win total, I will be looking to bet the opposing Team Total overs throughout the season (barring any large improvement from this defense). It’s sad that I have such little faith in my team, but, as much as I love Big Blue, I prefer large green more…Fade the Giants.

Season Total Plays: Under 6 wins (-110).