Indianapolis Colts (o10 -105 / u10 -115) -130 to win AFC South

Tennessee Titans (o9 -105 / u9 -115) +175 to win AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars (o6.5 +100 / u6.5 -120) +750 to win AFC South

Houston Texans (o4.5 +100 / u4.5 -120) +3000 to win AFC South

How many of you honestly remember that the Titans tied for the best record in the AFC and had the number 1 seed in the playoffs? They did that without Derrick Henry for a large portion of the year. What a time to be alive. The AFC South seems like a two team race again, between the Colts and Titans. But I honestly think the Texans can make noise. The Jags are also quite the puzzle.

The Colts are almost the favorite by default here. With the acquisition of Matt Ryan, it is expected that their talented roster has a steady hand leading the ship now. I want to go ahead and dispel this thought process. This team has a bad secondary and a suspect group of skill position players outside of Jonathan Taylor. Yes, Michael Pittman will be the number 1 WR and that’s really great for fantasy and all. But in the real life NFL, is he really a number 1? Mo Alie Cox is great and all (super cool name) but he would be ranked in the bottom percentile of starting TEs in the NFL. Keep in mind, that that the offensive line is seen as a strength for Indy, when in reality they are rated 10th coming into the season. A fairly bad secondary in a pass happy league is also something I don’t love. However, I’m going to make the case that the AFC South and the overall lack of WR strength, will help the Colts overcome the secondary deficiency. In fact, this division is weak enough for me to consider the Colts over the 10 wins. Ultimately, I don’t love the double digit number, so I am going to go a bit exotic here and take the Colts exact stage of elimination. It’s a number offered on Draftkings and gives a bit of value on a team I expect to make the playoffs but not go deep. Also, as usual with Matt Ryan teams, I will make sure to be on them while they are playing in a dome. Colts Stage of Elimination – Divisional Round +330

The Titans are getting Derrick Henry back. The Titans are losing AJ Brown and replacing him with a mid-level rookie. This is not a good “trade”. While I love Ryan Tannehill and what he and Vrabel have combined to do with their time with the Titans, I just don’t think they can keep pulling the rabbit out the hat. The Titans are an average team with an overall poor level of skill players – Derrick Henry aside, of course. I just don’t know what I would be getting out of that passing game. There are no TEs of note, either. The defense is nothing special and given the variance of defense year to year, this could turn into one of the better units. You also have to love the division they are in. They are clearly better than Houston and the Jags talent wise. I lean under on Tennessee but won’t make it an official bet. Speaking of, I will be looking to be “under” on this team a lot. They just don’t’ have the firepower to shoot out with teams. In games they can set the tempo, I will most likely be on them.

The Jaguars cleaned house and got rid of Urban Meyer. As predicted last year, Meyer was not the answer. His style didn’t come close to transcending to the NFL. He was overall an ass clown and brought the team down. The massive “if” here is if Trevor Lawrence makes a jump. Because if he does, this team could be much better. They brought in Doug Pederson, who will open up the offense. An offense that added Christian Kirk and is regaining Travis Etienne. The Jaguars did the right things this summer, by drafting defensive line and bringing in Brandon Scherff. I’m not too thrilled with their supposed offensive moves with the receivers (Kirk and Zay Jones). I do think the offense will be more creative, almost by default, but mostly because Pederson is a cowboy and makes aggressive moves. The defense will be a liability. This is all on Lawrence taking a leap, which may happen. But I’m not betting on it. Jaguars u6.5 wins -120.

Davis Mills looked pretty good last year. Given the other rookie QBs that were drafted, you can make a case he looked better than everyone except Mac Jones. Now he gets Pep Hamilton as his offensive coordinator this year. I like his upside for 2022. I like Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins and Dameon Pearce and Brevin Jordan. However, I hate Lovie Smith. This was an awful hire that seemed to be somehow related to the NFL snubbing Brian Flores, Flores suing the NFL and the Texans having last dibbs in their coaching search. All the love aside, this is probably the worst defense in the NFL. They are weak at all 3 levels of the defense. They get the benefit of having an “easy” schedule, problem is, they don’t actually have to play themselves in this “bad” division. I do think that Mills makes a step forward and the offense will be better. This defense is just so hideous, I can’t seriously back them. My strategy with them will be to wait until late in the week, probably near kickoff and see how high their numbers get and take a super high plus number. This strategy will most likely be employed when they play running teams, slow paced teams or teams with poor offenses. As for their win total, I have no opinion really. I lean over but there’s a world where the Titans play them tough and Jacksonville is better than expected and the Texans will have a hard time cracking 5 wins. Honestly, if Davis Mills doesn’t work out this year, would they want to go over 5 wins?