Quick Week 1 RECAP & Thoughts

Week 1 and it felt good to be back! Dogs were barking loud this weekend as the underdogs went 12-4 against the spread. Books had a field day. Sharps were cashing tickets, while the public couldn’t wrap their head around Buffalo losing a game.

Let’s start in Buffalo, which proved to be the biggest underdog win of the week for the Steelers. That Pitt D is still solid as hell. They got after Josh Allen like crazy and Allen, who suddenly looks very inaccurate, was running around and missing targets. Maybe Allen just had a really special year last year…

Green Bay was another favorite going down. I was all over New Orleans in my contests, pickems and books. The Packers still have a real inability to stop the run. Their defense may be their undoing. Rodgers had an off day. Not much you can take away from his day. I still think if Jameis doesn’t turn the ball over and Sean Payton schemes good plays, the Saints can be going places. They have a really talented team upfront – on both sides of the ball.

The Bucs are still the talk of the league. They absolutely are the most complete team. That defense is scary and basically you can’t run against it. As long as Tom Brady doesn’t fall off an age cliff (this can happen at any time, think Peyton Manning), this is a title contender. You will have to bet against them and their hype, it will be disgusting, stay strong – it’s the right thing to do. The Cowboys defense blows. I do not think this is a contender. This is a very good offense that has to beat teams 35 – 31 every game. Fade.  

Arizona looked so good. Or is Tennessee just that bad? I’m leaning the latter. I beginning to think that Mike Vrabel did an amazing coaching job last year. One that no one has acknowledged enough. I think Arizona isn’t as great as they looked last week. Their style of a running QB and run & gun offense is the Titans kryptonite.

The Rams are good. The Rams aren’t injured yet. They still sort of have no depth. Andy Dalton should no longer be a starter in the NFL unless in emergency situations. The Bears defense is not what it once was. That secondary is pretty bad and vying for the worst in the league.

Cincinnati won a tough game in OT against a team that looked like they did not come to play. I think the Vikings are better than the Bengals and too many people will overreact to what they saw last week. Cincy is still not great upfront. The Bengals were bleeding in the secondary and gave up a lead and almost lost the game.

Brandon Staley, huh? What a difference a year and a better coach makes. Chargers might be a serious contender if this keeps up. Herbert went into Washington against that defense with a rookie coach and won outright. This should be more of a big deal. I think the Ryan Fitzpatrick injury isn’t as bad as it seems. Taylor Henieke is just as much of a gunslinger as Fitz and will keep his team in games. WFT will need to win ugly games.

Baltimore wasn’t just walking into Las Vegas with all those fans there and rolling. If you thought they were, it’s time to re-evaluate your process. There are “spots” during the NFL season. This was one of them. Lamar still can’t throw that well. I have ranked the Browns higher in my rankings, as they are the better team. Baltimore is still a very good team but I’m not sure they are good situationally and under pressure.

Baker Mayfield and Co. looked like they could hang with the big boys. Kevin Stefanski is moving up the coaching charts. Don’t bet against Andy Reid with time to prepare (or basically the month of September). Cleveland will have something to say about the AFC towards the end of the season. Pat Mahomes is the best QB in the game. I think I covered it,

The Texans are really bad but the Jaguars are worse, for now. Urban Meyer may have no fucking clue what he’s doing in the pros. Do not bet a rookie QB on the road, especially not in the first game of his career. Do not lose site that the Jags won one single game last year. Also, who was betting this game when it got to -3.5? On the road!

Sam Darnold still looks like he’s not that great. But it sure seems like if put into a position to succeed he could be good enough. Zack Wilson certainly looked decent. Hard to bet a rookie going on the road to New England, where Belichick has his way with rookies.

I learned nothing from the 49ers and Lions. One is a SB contender and the other might be the worst team in the league. The loss of Jason Verrett is going to hurt a lot for this Niners defense. Kyle Shanahan will mask the loss of Mostert.

I think Jalen Hurts might be a better version of Lamar Jackson. I don’t want no shit for that. This might happen and a guy named Nick fucking Sirianni might have lucked his way into a great situation. The Eagles are solid in the trenches and atrocious in the back end. I think we see a potpourri of Eagles scoring and making plays this year.

The Denver Broncos will miss the loss of Jerry Jeudy. That Denver defense is going to be one of the best in the league. I’m excited by the Broncos’ Baltimore Ravens with Trent Dilfer vibe. Teddy Covers is better than Trent Dilfer was. The NY Football Giants will end up firing Jason Garrett this year. It is absolutely going to happen. If anyone knows where I can get down on that action, hit me up.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Colts, I believe they should be 6.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Colts in Indianapolis, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4 point favorite (accounting for a Colts 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Chiefs should be a 7 point favorite over the Dallas Cowboys on a neutral field. If the game was in Dallas, the Chiefs should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in KC, the Chiefs should be an 9.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.