Quick Week 4 RECAP & Thoughts

My first legit bad week of the season. I probably was right like 56% on sides but my teasers were a calamity. I know I advocated for taking the Giants + the points and they covered. But I didn’t think they’d actually win outright. The Saints keep falling in my rankings. I also couldn’t resist taking all the points with the Texans. That number got up to 18.5 before kickoff!!! Confirmation bias well tell you that it went that high because the Bills are great or that Houston is that bad (they are). In reality, you have to take that many points in the NFL because it usually covers. Speaking of bad, with Davis Mills at QB, Houston is now tied for worst team in the NFL with the Jags.

The Urban Meyer experiment seems to be in full disarray. This is really not all that surprising. Imagine coming from a world (Columbus, OH) where you are King Shit and never had to struggle. Not for players, staff, dominance, power, you name it. Remember that college coaches are usually the highest paid employee in a state because it dictates their power. Now, take all that and throw it away by working for a billionaire in an unforgiving league where the competition is leveled through a salary cap. Meyer isn’t King Shit anymore and all the losing isn’t going to stop. One good performance form Trevor Lawrence in a loss isn’t going to right the ship. The Jags are bad.   

So I’m reconsidering something. I don’t think the Giants are as bad as I thought they were. Not because they won their first game in New Orleans. I actually put that more on a let down spot for the Saints after being on the road for over a month. I think the Giants are competitive because they play for Joe Judge. I think that Jason Garrett is holding them back. The offensive line still sucks and the defense still can’t replace Blake Martinez. The Giants are the scrappy bad team.

The Jets won a football game! And they did everything in their power to almost squander it away. This was really just a bad spot for the Titans and they were laying entirely too much. The Jets still have a long, long way to go. All of the Titans wins this year have come with some suspicion for me. Even the comeback against the Seahawks. Tennessee gets the Jaguars next on the road.

Ok, maybe my Kliff Kingsbury hate has gone too far. In a spot that I thought was going to be tough going into LA, the Cards demolished the Rams. The Rams are a team that has OWNED the Cards over Sean McVay’s tenure. The Cardinals are showing me something. However, if you are one of those people that is ready to crown them the best team in the NFL, you need to really reconsider your process.  

Joe Burrow and company barely overcame the beleaguered Jaguars at home in a short week. Let’s not get crazy with this team. I still doubt Zac Taylor, a lot. The offensive line held together because the Jags can’t rush the passer.

In the secret game of the day, the Browns beat the Vikings. It was a slog, it was ugly but they won. You can’t underestimate how important that is. Stefanski beat his mentor in Zimmer, at his house. Baker has been playing injured and persevered. Baker also missed ODB like 3 times wide open. This game shouldn’t have been as close as it was. The Vikings are the “best” 1-3 team. That’s not saying much.  

Ok, fine. The Cowboys are forreal. Ugh. They have a legit shot to win the NFC. They will almost certainly win their division this year (unless Washington figures out how to play defense again). They might even get a first round bye due to the NFC West having to play each other. Shit, it’s football and single elimination, anything can happen. I still have trust issues with this defense, eventhough it has improved. The Boys are laying a big number against the divisional foe Giants. This will be a test of how real they are for the point spread.

The Ravens went into Denver and won a tough game. I know they beat the Chiefs at home but I would argue that this was their best game of the year. They went into Denver (altitude) and beat one of the NFL’s best defenses. Now, they were helped along by Teddy Covers going down. Speaking of, I would have a hard time betting the Broncos if Drew Lock is at the helm. Dude is just so erratic.

Buffalo completely routed Houston and honestly the outcome was light. A lot of FGs by the Bills, that if they were TDs would have led to a historic blowout. I don’t think I learned much about the Bills in this game. Yes, they did what they needed to do but against what? Davis Mills is terrible. He was on the road for the fist time against this defense. Houston really screwed me last week by not covering that absurd line. However, I have to keep telling myself that this is a team comprised mostly of second and third string NFL players. They aren’t awful, just not great. I am getting value on their lines but need situations where Davis Mills isn’t asked to do too much.

Tampa and the Pats was the most anticipated game of the year. The Pats managed to cover because Bill Belichick is a genius and played the exact correct gameplan. He still fell short. I think the Pats are an average team with upside. Just because they went toe to toe with Tom and the Bucs, does not mean they are equals. Gambling / NFL football is very situational. Also, this TB secondary is just flat bad. This could be a problem in such a pass heavy league.

The San Diego Super Chargers are a legit SuperBowl contender. This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, as I have been saying this since the preseason. Herbert is that dude and most obviously the next man up after Mahomes. Brandon Staley is coaching up the defense and being aggressive in his play calling. Shit, they beat and covered against the Raiders in what was essentially a home game for the Raiders. Also, Las Vegas is not as good as their start was. Temper expectations. The defense is flawed.

What a fall from grace for the Dolphins. They just can’t generate any offense and that O line is so bad that their average (being kind) QBs can’t overcome. Tua isn’t the answer. Brissett is definitely not the answer, though he is a solid backup. The Dolphins value can’t be any lower. Are they gonna burn me three weeks in a row? Well, I’m going to find out.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 5.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Panthers, I believe they should be 5.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Panthers in Carolina, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4.5 point favorite (accounting for a Carolina 1-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Browns should be a 6 point favorite over the Miami Dolphins on a neutral field. If the game was in Miami, the Chiefs should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in KC, the Chiefs should be an 8.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.