Buffalo Bills (o11 -110 / u11 -110) -160 to win AFC East

New England Patriots (o9.5 +105 / u9.5 -125) +350 to win AFC East

Miami Dolphins (o9.5 +110 / u9.5 -130) +350 to win AFC East

New York Jets (o6 +100 / u6 -120) +2500 to win AFC East

The AFC East, property of the New England Patriots for 2 decades has felt like a different division lately. With the emergence of Josh Allen and the Bills last year along with the departure of Tom Brady, this division no longer runs through Foxboro. As you will read below, I’m not so convinced it runs Buffalo either. The Dolphins and the Jets have young teams that can alter the dynamics of the AFC East. Miami looks poised to take the next step but it’s gonna have to be Tua time for a playoff run. The Jets are, um, still the Jets, but things are looking up for Gang Green.

The Bills looked great last year. Clearly, the true challenger to the Chiefs’ AFC reign. Josh Allen was a legit MVP contender who came in 3rd in overall QBR and a 69% competition rate. Stef Diggs sure looked like a Top 3 overall WR and Sean McDermott coaching up the 12th ranked defense. The Bills were so thrilled with last year’s results they just gave Josh Allen like eleventy billion dollars. I’m very non-plussed by this Bills team. They absolutely have talent, on both side of the ball but can Josh Allen repeat his massive improvement from last year? Prior to last year’s feats, he was ranked exactly 24th in QBR for the prior two seasons. I’m not saying that Allen can’t improve his accuracy, I’m just saying what if last year was the outlier. The running game is certainly not set with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary sharing snaps and no clear RB1. Overall, the offense runs strictly through the passing game with the success of Diggs, Gabriel, Beasley and the TEs. Emmanuel Sanders was brought in this year to replace John Brown. I think this makes the Bills’ offense even more efficient. I expect the talented defense with TreDavious White, Michah Hyde and Matt Milano to stay stout with their stewardship by McDermott and Leslie Frazier. I’m just not buying Buffalo to continue to play at this high level. I think there’s a regression coming and it’s not at all inconceiveable that they win this division with 10 or 9 wins. I’m staying away from futures on Buffalo but will look to play them early in the season, as they are stronger and more consistent than the newer challengers in the AFC.

The Mac Jones era is upon us! In a completely stunning move, the Pats shuffled Cam out of town and just anointed Mac Jones as the starter. I’m unsure if this is because Belichik has determined that Cam is done or the combo of Mac’s accuracy along with Cam’s COVID issues was too much to overlook. Either way, I like the Pats this year. Last year this team was 7-9 and that was with Cam not having much time to learn the system and then getting COVID early on and never being the same. With most of the defensive holdouts from last year coming back and a rejuvenated WR and TE corps, this team should be better. At least on paper. Is it enough to think the Pats will reach double digit wins? I have my concerns. I do not want to ever bet a rookie QB over their expectations. Even if Belichick and Josh McDaniels are coaching him. I also never like to bet against the greatest coach in the history of the game. Stephon Gilmore was recently added to the PUP list, so he will be missing significant time. I think Belichick’s schemes can make up for the loss but this is not a good sign for the secondary. It’s also important to know that the Bills are now the cream of this division and with the Dolphins getting better, I don’t think the AFC East will be another cakewalk. I’m gonna pass on the Pats. I’m going to fade them early on (fade the rookie) and look to back them once the defense has found it’s stride and Mac has some experience.

The Miami Dolphins have to be right about Tua. If they are not right about their first round pick, they will go down in infamy amongst teams that just missed in the draft. Justin Herbert sure looked like the real deal last year and Tua looked unstartable. Well, there’s no more competition this year, as Ryan Fitzpatrick has been moved out of town. It’s all Tua’s team now with no legit backup option playing behind him. Outside of the QB position, this is a really good team. The type of squad you expect to really take a big step forward. The defense is solid and expected to be top 10 this year. Xavien Howard signed a deal and is happy. Brian Flores will coach up Byron Jones, Emmanuel Ogbah and the rest of the defense. The receiving game is a strength with Will Fuller, Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki. All that’s left is for Tua to take the next step. I’m leaning that he does. But I’m by no means sold on it. Given the potential volatility (including a trade for Deshaun Watson, who may not play this year) of this team, I am foregoing the win total. I am looking to grab value. I think that value lays in playing the conference and SB. I would probably hedge out if this team makes it to the second round of the playoffs but either way, that should lock in a profit. Dolphins +1800 to Win AFC. Dolphins +3500 to win SuperBowl.

I believe the NY Jets have been the worst organization in American professional sports. Ok, now that that’s out of the way. I think the Jets might finally be turning a corner. The Jets only won 2 games last year (that should have famously been 3, if not for Gregg William’s famous all out blitz) and look like they should improve. Even just simple regression should have them better than last year. Zach Wilson has looked like the best rookie QB drafted in the preseason. I do not expect anything great from a rookie QB (see above) but the line improved and Elijah Moore might be a real thing. The Jets finally started drafting well. Do not discount the impact of Robert Saleh as the head coach. He not only is an upgrade over Adam Gase (everyone is an upgrade over Adam Gase) but he’s a rah-rah motivation guy. A young team trying to establish themselves need that. He’s also a former defensive coordinator, which will see him manning that side of the ball. Historically, Saleh has coached some pretty great defenses in San Francisco. The issue with his style of defensive coaching (the Gus Bradley style) is you need the personnel to make it effective. His scheming will be severely hampered by one of the worst secondaries in the entire league. Mix in the loss of Carl Lawson for the year, the Jarrad Davis injury and Quinnen Williams always banged up and I don’t love this defense. The offense should take a step forward and I expect Corey Davis and Elijah Moore to contribute. I am also high on Tevin Coleman in the running game. This is a veteran who knows Saleh and will move the sticks. The fact that this defense will be so bad, along with Zach Wilson having to learn the NFL in real time gives me serious pause. I’m fading the Jets this year. Jets u6 -120.