Quick Week 13 RECAP & Thoughts

Good betting week last week. The things I got right, I got really right. Thanks Chargers, Philly, Washington and Steelers. Would’ve been one of those monster weeks had Denver just gotten some form of points out of their two super-long drives. They really let me down. Aside from the results, they were the right side.

Well, after financially costing me loads of money last week, the Jets went back to being fucking terrible. Not really sure what the gameplan is with the other New York team, but it ain’t working. Zach Wilson hasn’t improved and that defense is horrendous ranking dead last in DVOA. I would say the franchise is falling on hard times but this is who they’ve been for 50 years.

Tampa is the best team in the NFL. Unlike other years it’s super close, with a few teams bunched up top that can win given the situation.

Dallas won a game they were supposed to win against a team that was decimated. They rank 4th overall in defensive DVOA but I have my doubts. I trust the rating but don’t think they can keep this up.

The Niners had a tough time in Seattle against a desperate Seahawks team. That was a tough spot and Russell Wilson doesn’t die that easily.

Don’t be fooled though. Seattle is not “back” in any measure. They may one of the worst defenses in the NFL in my opinion. I can’t trust the offense with Russell’s finger still in question.

The Saints might be cooked. It’s unfortunate because I really liked them coming into this year. But their outstanding defense is being put to waste. Entirely too many injuries and they are on their 3rd QB of the season. All the great coaching in the world can’t overcome that.

Buffalo, at home, in primetime, up against a rushing team (they excel at stopping the rush), in division, biggest game this year so far and….they got schooled. I am still skeptical about Buffalo as a top 5 team. They have 1 good win this year. It’s week 13.

As for the Pats. My god. Bill Belichick just went out and showed why he’s the master. You can go ahead and lock up coach of the year now. It’s a wrap. No one is going to top his game plan to beat Buffalo in a windstorm on the road. You figure the biggest edge Buffalo could have is that they were facing a rookie QB on the road in Mac Jones. So you know what Belichick does? Only lets him throw 3 passes and takes the game out of his hands. Dude is an absolute living legend.

Jacksonville isn’t getting any better. At all. Trevor Wilson doesn’t look generational to me. You  know how they say talent comes through? Well, I don’t see it.

How about those Bengals? Hard to trust, huh? If only some gambling blogger told you to not trust them. Anyways, Cincy is an average team with a below average coach. They will win games because of Burrow.

The Panthers fired their offensive coordinator on a Sunday right before all the games kicked off? And they were on a bye. WTF. Yea, I dunno. Here’s what I know. Bet their team total under. A lot.

The Cardinals still have the best record in the NFL. All of that is due to their defense and Vance Joseph. That dude deserves his flowers.

Why does Matt Nagy have a job? Anyways, it sounds like Justin Fields will be back this week. Whatever. That franchise needs a rehaul.

Speaking of franchises needing rehauls: The Giants. Not even sure where to start with them. Can’t wait for Jake Fromm to start an NFL game this upcoming weekend! The Giants might honestly be better served firing Joe Judge and making Patrick Graham the head coach. At least that dude’s gameplans seem to make sense. The Giants D is the high point for a team that is very, very low.

The Houston Texans are garbage. Even though they’ve won two games this year, I expect them to play as one of the worst teams in NFL history down the stretch.

Russell Gage cost me a bunch of money by dropping a wide open pass in garbage time in the endzone. Too bad this wasn’t called on NBC so Al Michaels can make egregious gambling references. This way I could soothe my pain through laughing.

Let’s all say this together: the Raiders are not good. I don’t care how they die earlier this year. I don’t care how they flash offensively sometimes. They aren’t a good team.

Lamar has been looking downright bad in this past month – when he’s played. I’m not exactly sure what to think of the Ravens. They have a top flight coach. I’ve seen Lamar perform at MVP levels. But the defense is severely depleted with Marlon Humphrey’s injury. The offensive line has taken several hits. The Ravens are ranked high due to what they’ve done, however can they keep doing it?

The Detroit Lions will not be winless this year! In all honesty, you kinda have to love the way they play for Dan Campbell. They really don’t quit. Without Deandre Swift, I’m just not sure they can be competitive.

The LA Rams beat up on a bad Jaguars team. Yay. Not really sure this tells me anything about the Rams. They will quite a test in Arizona in primetime this upcoming Monday. Oh, Beckham hasn’t helped because he isn’t a WR1.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Colts, I believe they should be 6 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Colts in Indianapolis, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4 point favorite (accounting for a Indianapolis 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 5.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Ravens should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be an 8 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.