Dallas Cowboys (o9 +100/ u9 -120) +150 to win NFC East

Washington Football Team (o8.5 -120 / u8.5 +100) +200 to win NFC East

New York Giants (o7 -130 / u7 +110) +400 to win NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (o6.5 -140 / u6.5 +115) +500 to win NFC East

The NFC East has been the worst division in the NFL for the past few years and it’s trending in that direction again. Last year, the mighty mighty Washington Football Team won the division with a blistering 7-9 record, just inching out the Giants. The WFT won the division because a) someone had to and b) the Eagles tanked the last regular season game for a draft pick. The very reason that Washington was in a position to win this division last year was due to Dak Prescott having his foot go sideways in week 5 last year against the Giants. There’s a lot going in in this division this year from Jalen Hurts to Daniel Jones being asked to be starting level NFL QBs. But the key to handicapping this division is to see what’s happening underneath the top-level stuff being shoveled by ESPN.

Hard Knocks! Cool drone footage! Jerry Jones being Jerry Jones! How about them Cowboys! There’s a lot of publicity around this team this year. Dak is back from a horrendous looking injury sustained against the Giants that knocked him out a majority of last year. But, when he played…Yes, when he played he was on some absurd 6,000yd track. The reason Dak was on this trajectory was not because of how good him and that very potent offense is (eventhough they are great). It was because this defense was total shit. Just horrible. Injuries in the linebacker and D line corps, a secondary that was bottom of the league and a coordinator who had the league pass him by. In is Dan Quinn to try to fix this defense. Once known as a defensive guru that spawned a defensive coaching tree, Quinn is now trying to recreate his image and get another head coaching shot. Quinn will institute the Tampa 2 defense and much like Robert Saleh with the Jets, this style works great – if you have the personnel to execute it. The Cowboys do not. They tried addressing the secondary in the draft but have no above average players in the unit currently. The defense should remain poor. They get bailed out in being in a easy division but they still have to face some of the best defensive lines in the league in Washington and Philly. The offensive line should be healthy this year but historically that has not been the case. I love the offense, Zeke, Lamb, Cooper, Gallup, Jarwin, etc. Dak will have a good counting stats year with this group. And while the NFL is now geared for a team with an all-out assault defense to succeed, this team won’t be guarding anyone. I also worry about Dak. He hasn’t played a real game in a year and a half. He’s having shoulder issues that required MRIs and consultants with Tommy John specialists. This all gives me serious pause. Add in the fact that Mike McCarthy might just be terrible (consider that after being fired from Green Bay, Matt LeFleur, a rookie head coach, took over, and managed to win 13 games, back to back, with the same team). I really think that Dallas is not overall the best team in this division. I think the public is always on them and their win totals are high and futures are compressed. Yea, I’m fading the Cowgirls. Dallas u9 -120. Dallas to NOT make Playoffs +100.

We all know the story from last year, Washington had a great defensive line. They were in this shitty division, so they stayed competitive with Alex Smith, made it to the playoffs and gave the eventual champs everything they could handle with Tyler Henieke. Well, now we get another year under the Ron Rivera administration. Things are trending in the right direction. Antonio Gibson is in his second year. Terry McLaurin is now a veteran and can easily make the leap in to the top tier WR category. Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought on to provide upside in the passing game. The O line isn’t that good, but they will be employing a quick out style with Gibson and Curtis Samuel. The defense was 3rd overall DVOA last year. They got better by bringing on William Jackson at corner. Matt Ioannidis is also coming back, so on paper, this Defensive Line is even better. Another factor is having Ron Rivera’s full attention. This is a man that was having chemo during periods of the year last year. He’s now cancer-free and honing his attention on getting better. I think Fitzpatrick is the perfect fit for this team. He will YOLO his way into points that his defense can protect. Even if he’s faulty, the defense can hold the other side. I freaking love Washington this year. My main concern with them is the schedule. Warren Sharp has them as the 6th hardest schedule in the league. This is their prize for winning the NFC East last year. However, they are the best team in this division and not being priced as so. Give me all of the Football Team. WFT o8.5 -120. WFT to win NFC East +200. Ron Rivera Coach of the Year +2000.

Oh, the Giants – my hometown team. The team I grew up rooting for. What to make of the Giants? Let’s start with the reason this team has been so horrible for so long: the offensive line. This line has still not improved. They are projected to be 30th overall per Establish the Run. So, while the G-Men went out and got Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph and drafted Kadarius Toney, they still have protection issues for Daniel Jones. And this whole season is really a referendum on Daniel Jones and Dave Gettelman, by proxy. If the Daniel Jones experiment doesn’t work, it’s curtains for Gettleman. Having Saquon back will certainly help. Jones will have targets all over the field but if he continues to have two blindsides and averages more than a turnover per game, it’s not gonna matter. I loved the defense under Patrick Graham last year but unlike offense, defense tends to not carry over year to year. Adoree Jackson should give the Giants a nice core in the secondary along with James Bradberry. I expect the Giants to be a team that keeps the totals low in their games. I just feel that Jones won’t be able to take that next step. This is not an indictment of Joe Judge, who I generally like and believe is a culture changer, but more of an indictment of Jason Garrett. He’s not scheming this offense right to maximize the talent that is actually on the roster. The offensive line struggles will be too much to overcome, as they have to face Washington and Philly twice, plus an improved Dallas front 7. I think the Giants start off really poorly due to their schedule and Garrett is the sacrificial lamb at some point during the season. There is a world where if their offensive line is even just bottom tier and not bottom two, this Giants team could take a step forward. But what is that step? 8 wins, maybe 9? I just don’t think there’s enough here for me to back or fade the Giants. Pass.

Philly tanked the last game of the season to set off a weird NFL butterfly effect. That loss cost Doug Pederson his job, the Giants a playoff spot, Carson Wentz’s time in Philly, the Colts QB situation, a Miami draft spot, a guy named Nick Sirianni getting an NFL head coaching job and eventually Jalen Hurts becoming the team’s QB. I honestly believe that the Eagles were not interested in having Jalen Hurts be the starting QB this year but given the lack of a trade and stockpiling picks for next year’s draft, the team had no choice. Hurts played well in the games he started (and finished) last year. I think Hurts is cagey and fast enough to pull off a decent Lamar Jackson impression. I think Jalen Hurts can actually do what Jackson does, but better. The receiving corps, one that has been a joke, has improved. Heisman winner Devonta Smith is joining last year’s first round pick Jalen Reagor. Dallas Goedert is healthy and still has Zack Ertz with him at TE. Miles Sanders is a good solid RB. The offensive line is going to be top flight. My concern here is obviously the defense, namely the secondary and LB corps. I also have a hard time backing Nick Sirianni. A rookie head coach is never a good look. The mix of an unproven Hurts with unproven/young receivers along with a defense that can’t guard a soul in the secondary is not a mix I want to back. This team has the potential for extreme variance and I have no strong position which side of that variance I fall on. I will most certainly be fading Philly early in the season and as long as Hurts remains the starter, I will back them later in the season when they are undervalued.