Week 14 RECAP

For the most part, the better teams won this past weekend. We also had the game of the year between the Ravens and the Browns. It’s the time of the year where lines are very well-defined. So, before betting on any teams, you need to be SURE the line is wrong, or else you don’t bet. Remember, the point is to try to find value. It’s great to have action but it’s terrible to lose because you are being reckless.

The Giants are like that scene in Major League, where after being good for a while, the Cleveland fans realize the Indians are “shitty again”. That’s the Giants. A really impressive win against the Seahawks, basically all with their defense, then having to play the Cardinals at home with Daniel Jones on one leg. Most of the NFL analysts are blaming this loss on Jones being hobbled. I disagree. I think the Giants offense is just bad and their defense wasn’t completely lights out, so they were unable to win. It looks like Colt McCoy will be going up against the Browns this week. I know the sharp play is the Giants in this game. All the factors and the spot point to the Giants. But I just can’t. That game is a total avoid for me. What do you know? The Eagles won a football game! Jalen Hurts did everything right and they beat the mighty Saints. My takeaway is that while the Eagles got a boost of confidence from Hurts, the Saints looked flat and Taysom Hill might just be overrated. Be careful backing the Eagles this week when the league now has more tape on him in that offense. Also, the Eagles secondary, which absolutely stinks, is now decimated with injuries. The Washington Professional Football Club of DC continues to roll. They did this all with defense. I was on the Niners and feel like I lost my bet exclusively because of Chase Young. I don’t think I’ve lost a bet due to one single player on a defense before. Their defense will continue to roll this week against a poor Seahawks O-line, however, I am not sure the offense will be able to score enough with Haskins potentially in as QB. The Cowboys were favored on the road and won a game! Exciting. They will most likely not be in that scenario again this year. That Dallas defense is still hot garbage and they benefitted from the best possible matchup against the Bengals. Dallas is certainly bettable, but it has to be against teams that can’t completely shred their defense, namely against bad quarterbacks.  

Green Bay won but didn’t cover against the Lions. This goes to betting big lines and the team’s motivation. The Packers were not motivated to blow out the Lions but certainly could have. They covered my “hate your life” teaser though! While the Pack are certainly a top 5 team in the NFL, I am still not impressed. They have not shown me how they could beat a team with a good run game or how they can go on the road and beat a Chiefs team. As for the Lions, this team surely seems to have packed it in. I don’t think we see Kenny Golladay for the rest of the year and Matthew Stafford is now banged up. The Lions are a play against team. The Chicago Bears finally showed signs of life. However, it might be too little, too late, as this entire organization’s fate might already be written. Expect major changes in Chicago this offseason and a completely different team next year. What Chicago did show me though, is they can play against an awful defense. I might look at them against the Jaguars in a couple of weeks. The Vikings deserved better. My Minnesota ticket against the Bucs deserved better. Dan Bailey missed every kick he took on Sunday (3 field goals and 1 extra point) and blew the cover and most likely the game for the Vikings. How Mike Zimmer did not cut him after the game is amazing to me. How NFL franchises can’t get their kicking game correct is amazing to me. Why can’t teams just look to 2nd level soccer teams to pluck talent from is amazing to me. Why is this so hard?

The cat might just be out of the bag on Taysom Hill. Is Hill good? We now have a 4 game sample size and the only thing I know for sure is Hill can beat the Falcons and hates throwing to Alvin Kamara. Other than that, his performance this past weekend against a bad Philly secondary tells me Hill can’t be trusted to throw the ball. I will say this: Sean Payton is a great offense scheme coach. He will find ways to throw looks at the Chiefs this weekend they aren’t expecting. The Atlanta Falcons offense looks dead. Granted, not having Julio Jones is a big deal but still, they were playing the Chargers and Anthony Lynn almost managed to beat himself, again. It might be in the best interest of Atlanta to lose out for the rest of the season and take a QB. Matty Ice looks like he’s 50 years old. I expect their last hurrah this weekend against division foe Tampa Bay. Regardless of what happens in this weekend’s game, the Falcons might be a full fade for the rest of the year. Tampa Bay managed to beat the Vikings pretty easily this past weekend but that had more to do with the Vikings kicker than the Bucs. I am still yet to be impressed by this Bucs team in the last 3 weeks. I dunno if there’s a rift between Arians and Brady but I do know that the Bucs won’t luck out with opposing kicker problems every week. Carolina got destroyed by the Broncos at home last weekend. The Panthers defense is flat out bad, making Drew Lock look like an all-pro. Depending on how focused Green Bay is this weekend, they can basically pick their margin of victory. It is hard for me to bet on the Panthers right now. And if I do, I would need the team they are playing to win me my bet and not the Panthers themselves.

The 49ers lost a game to one single defensive player on the opposing team. Now, Chase Young might be one of the best defensive players in the league but still. Nick Mullens now looks like a backup and I might have been too kind with the Jimmy G comparisons. I still think the Niners will play hard, as Kyle Shanahan is a good coach. I do not think they have packed it in for the year, even though they won’t be making the playoffs. The Rams are certainly the best team in the NFC West. It’s possible the Rams might just be the best team in the NFC, period. I just bet them to win the NFC. As long as Jared Goff isn’t getting pressured, I like Sean McVay to run a winning game plan and the Rams to execute it. The Cardinals finally got back to winning a game this past weekend versus the hobbled Giants. It certainly looks like Kyler Murray is back to running the football again. If reports are accurate and Murray’s shoulder is getting better, I certainly like the Cardinals chances against a bad Philly secondary this weekend. The Seahawks ran over the Jets this past weekend and really didn’t have to put too much effort into it. What they showed was that they could impose their will over a bad team when they needed to. This is a good thing to know about the Seahawks but does not mean I am ready to bet them just yet. In fact, the mismatch with the Washington defensive line and the Seattle offensive line certainly worries me this weekend.

New England was embarrassed in primetime this past week. While Cam Newton certainly looks washed, it’s hard to assess with no legitimate weapons to work with. The Patriots are a hard team to bet week in and week out. While they have the greatest head coach in the history of the sport in Bill Belichick, they basically are a bottom 5 team in the league in talent. This week they play the Dolphins with a  rookie QB. This is an amazing historical advantage for Belichick. However, this game will be in Miami where they Pats have always had trouble late in the season. The Dolphins lost and covered this past week. While this looks closer than it was, it wasn’t. The Chiefs seriously just turn the switch on and off. The Dolphins were actually leading this game by 10 at one point until eventually losing by a touchdown. I love Brian Flores and the secondary but they can’t stop the run. The Jets are still the worst team in football. I believe that in a 3-team teaser they will be a free square every week if you just fade them. I never would advocate for playing 3-team teasers but this team is DONEZO. The Buffalo Bills showed the world how good they are when they took care of the Steelers this weekend. I understand the inclination is to think the Bills are gonna win the Super Bowl now but hold your horses. This was a great spot for the Bills and a bad one for Pittsburgh. What should be noted here is that the Bills defense is getting better. This will matter when they are in the playoffs. If they can’t figure out how to run the ball, they will not advance far in the playoffs though. As of now, this team has a poor running game.

Pittsburgh lost another game this weekend and by now it has been exposed that they can’t run the ball, their offense is average at best and their defense is missing too many pieces. While I love them taking out their frustrations on the lowly Bengals this week, I do not think the Steelers are a serious contender. I will gladly like to bet against them in the playoffs in the right matchup. The Ravens looked like world beaters in the game of the year on Monday night. I still don’t know if Lamar Jackson could win a big spot. I still don’t know if this team could throw the ball with any consistency. Yes, it was cool to see Jackson come in and save the day but keep in mind it was a lead they gave away that necessitated Jackson coming in. The Ravens still have a very good defense and that will matter if they end up having to play, say the Steelers in the playoffs…If the Jets weren’t so terrible and so poorly coached, the Bengals would easily be the worst team in the league. While he will certainly use the excuse of losing Burrow to help save his job, Zac Taylor is awful and needs to go. This team has not improved a lick all year – even when they had Burrow. This is a bad team that will get totally blown out on Monday night by a pissed off Steelers team. Poor Cleveland. They finally found their head coach, began stringing wins together, have the best run game in the league but still have to deal with a weak secondary and the loss of Beckham. Just imagine Beckham was healthy and every single player in their secondary didn’t get hurt. Anyways, the Browns are a solid football team and I expect them to do well in the playoffs.

The Titans beat up on the lowly Jaguars this weekend. It is good when teams need to win games they must (and cover in the process). As we all know, it’s Derrick Henry season and this is about when he starts averaging 125+ yards a game. I still am wary betting this Tennessee team as their defense is trash. The Jaguars are playing out the string. They are bringing in Minshew which should make them a touch more competitive than they’ve been. However, make no mistake, this is a really bad team. But even really bad teams do not want to lose 15 games straight. I’m still amazed they were able to beat the Colts outright in Week 1. The Colts have done one of the craziest about faces in the NFL this year. Early on their defense was top notch and locking everyone down. They were barely able to score. Now, this has been a complete 180 and they are giving up points while finally scoring in bunches. They are a hard team to get a read on. I will be on them against poor defenses. I don’t trust 39 year old Philip Rivers against a tough defense. I feel bad for Deshaun Watson. What a mess Houston is. Poor Deshaun Watson is basically out there on an island with no offensive weapons, an awful defense and a head coaching and front office situation that is unsettled. Also, this team doesn’t even have a first round draft pick this upcoming year. In all seriousness, who really wants this Texans coaching job? As for the Texans, they just got blown out by the Bears! The Bears. Not sure how you can bet on or off this team. The Colts beat up on the Raiders this weekend, which shouldn’t surprise anyone that has been watching this Raiders defense. The thing is, how do the Colts do in the playoffs? Can they get their dominant defense back from early in the year? I think they could. But I am being cautious about laying too many points with the Colts.

Denver found a way to go into Carolina and destroy the Panthers. The Broncos are extremely schizophrenic. Drew Lock is most certainly not the answer in Denver and with that being the case, I would think they would let Fangio go, to allow a new coach to get the new quarterback. Denver is missing most of their secondary this upcoming week against the Bills. I love the number and spot and would most certainly be on Denver this weekend, it is now just a teaser for me with all the injuries. The Chiefs win and don’t cover again. I didn’t bother looking, but this has to be some sort of record. Win and don’t cover every week like this. I really think this is the best team in football and I am not worried about them in the playoffs. Just keep in mind one thing, they have a hard time stopping the run. It is probably their only weakness and might be their downfall. The Chargers managed to win a game that Anthony Lynn looked miserable in coaching again. This guy must have compromising pictures of the owner or GM or something. It is unfathomable that a billion dollar organization allows him out there every weekend to make the same mistakes over and over again. That being said, as long as they have a decent coach next year, I am ALL IN on this Chargers team. I will be betting their season win total over, for them to win the division, conference and Super Bowl. And finally, the Raiders. If it wasn’t for Gregg Williams blitzing in a prevent defense situation, the Raiders would have lost four in a row. Gruden mercifully fired the defensive coordinator right after the game last week. While that is certainly a step in the right direction, they have a short week against a good offensive Chargers team. I am on the Chargers in this game, even if it means betting Anthony Lynn on the road. As I’ve been saying all year, the Raiders are not a good team.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 8.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the 49ers, I believe they should be 8.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing the 49ers in San Francisco, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 5.5 point favorite (accounting for a 49ers 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be a 7.5 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be a 10.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.