Buffalo Bills (o11.5 -140 / u11.5 +120) -230 to win AFC East

Miami Dolphins (o9 +100 / u9 -120) +450 to win AFC East

New England Patriots (o8.5 -120 / u8.5 +100) +500 to win AFC East

New York Jets (o5.5 -160 / u5.5 +130) +2800 to win AFC East

Everyone knows the infamous 13 seconds, where the Bills dropped a game to KC in last year’s playoffs in the most unlikely of ways. This year the Bills are the favorite to win the Super Bowl and most certainly, this division. The Bills are the public team and a story fans love to get behind. I expect the Bills to win this division, pretty much without challenge. They are strong at the important spots – offensive / defensive line and they have one of the better secondaries in all of football, in a sport that is pass-happy. While most expect Josh Allen to take the next step and be a potential MVP of the league, I’m looking to fade that sentiment. It’s not that I don’t think he will continue to be a top QB, he will. It’s just that he’s losing his offensive coordinator and it will be near impossible to keep up with the pace that he was on last year. The Bills certainly improved their defense, with the addition of Vonn Miller but also get back a fully-healthy Tre White. I expect to see the Bills deep in the playoffs but if they don’t develop a more balanced offense (i.e. running game with James Cook), this team might be challenging to get 11 wins. I will just be selectively betting the Bills in-season.

The Patriots haven’t really improved much from last year. Sure, Mac Jones is in year two and has come to camp “in the  best shape of his life”. They got marginally better at WR with Devante Parker but there’s still pretty much nothing past him. The Pats also just lost Malcom Butler for the year. I know this sounds like a big deal back in 2016 but hear me out, the Pats kinda needed him. The offensive line and running game will be solid and keep them in games. They will try to win the Belichik way, running and defense. But the defensive line and secondary are week in respect to years past. This will be a middling team, at best. I don’t even know who will be calling the offense, reports have surfaced it could be anyone from Belichik to Matt Patricia or god help them, Joe Judge. This is a team I’m looking to fade in certain spots. Lean under, but no season play on the Pats.

The Dolphins have switched coaches and while I like Mike McDaniel and think they will be more creative offensively; this is still a team with holes. Mainly on the offensive line. Still. You better believe we are going to see a ton of short outlets to Tyreek and Waddle. The plan is to put Tua in a space to be successful and I think they will achieve that with a solid running game – a la SF 49ers and with good short passes to allow their dynamic receiver duo to make plays. The secondary is a strength of the team but I expect them to be giving up the run, which should mean more unders, as they will look to run the ball too. Everyone wants to know if Tua will take the next step this season and frankly, I have no clue. I think this scheme they are going to run will work but the offensive line is a major concern. This is an average division with one really good team (Bills) and one average team (Pats). I expect the Dolphins to handle the Jets this year – more on that in a second. No season play here. Just look for the unders.

My god, what a disaster this franchise is. They basically crushed the draft. I would dare to say they were in the top 3 of best drafts this year. They came out with a starting RB, a starting WR and a great D lineman, and that was just the first round. However, this is the Jets and have already lost Mechi Bechton for the season and Zach Wilson is out until at least game 1 – I expect him to be out probably till week 3. And while, in the short term, I do believe Joe Flacco is better to help them win games (this sentence is being written in the year 2022), this is a calamity for Wilson’s development. In a pivotal year, he will have no training camp, no reps with his guys to develop chemistry and working from an injury. No good. I expect the defense to make a jump, mainly because Saleh is a defensive coach and this is a young unit that will grow from last year. The question is still out on their secondary. Ultimately, the Jets do not have that much talent and are clearly the worst team in the division. I faded them early when the talk was all positive about their draft. Now that the reality of the season (and preseason) has set in, I am doing my annual ritual of fading the Jets. The one way this can all be upended is if they somehow acquire Jimmy G. If that’s the case, this is a team flirting with the playoffs, as their WR corps could actually be really good. However, they need to see Wilson with the draft capital they have spent on him. That said…Jets u5.5 +130.