San Francisco 49ers (o10.5 -105/ u10.5 -115) +180 to win NFC West

Los Angeles Rams (o10.5 +110 / u10.5 -130) +190 to win NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (o10 -110 / u10 -110) +275 to win NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (o8.5 +100 / u8.5 -120) +650 to win NFC West

The last preview before the regular season is upon us. Can you smell it? Entire Sundays being wasted away in front of the TV sweating games coached by the likes of Kliff Kingsbury and Dan Campbell. We finish up out West in what has been slated the hardest division in the NFL (from my prior post, we know that’s not true). I think every team in this division has a scenario where they can win it. I do not think that’s true of any other division in the league. Yes, even Kliff, Kyler and ko. can win the West. But a lot would have to go right. We get Sean McVay with a decent QB and Kyle Shanahan with an experiment at QB. Finally, Pete Carroll gets his QB, after he said he wanted out. No turning off your TVs for this year’s late games with these teams.

Kyle Shanahan is a top 5 coach in the NFL. I’m saying that because no one else seems to, at least, not enough. Dude has succeeded with Nick Mullens as his QB. For all the talk about Jimmy G not being enough to take this team over the top, he did take them to the SuperBowl. He has taken them to a 22-8 records over his 30 starts. Hard to imagine they could have done any better in that time. But that’s the paradox, Jimmy can’t stay healthy, does not have a crazy ceiling like Trey Lance but also is a proven winner. Ever the QB whisperer, Shanahan decided to roll the dice with Trey Lance as the 3rd pick in this year’s draft. If he made the right choice, Lance could be a bigger weapon than Lamar Jackson. Time will tell. For now, the Niners are the favorites to win the division even after finishing fourth last year. That’s cause injuries have subsided and the team seems healthy. Garrapolo, Kittle, Bosa, Mostert, Wilson, Dee Ford, etc. are all back. This is still a scary defensive line with all those 1st rounders. The offensive line is still very good and Shanahan might have the best running schemes in the game deploying multiple backs at all times. I think Jimmy G will be the starter for some considerable time. The early schedule for the Niners is soft and he will be able to win games. I’m sure the coaching staff will have packages for Lance and intersperse him into the offense in the way I expect Sean Payton to do with Taysom Hill / Jameis Winston. This team will be super fun to watch week in and week out. My biggest concern here is value. Who isn’t on the Niners to take a big bounce back? It’s public. This division is excellent and I’m simply not getting enough return (less than 2-1!!) to have the Niners win the division. There’s a possibility this is a 3 playoff team division. The Niners could win 10 games and still make the playoffs. Pass. I will be on the Niners unders early in the year because as long as Jimmy is the starter, they will play slow and methodical.

Everyone is all in on the Rams. Yea, I get it, they are getting Matthew Stafford in the best situation he’s been in careerwise. Sean McVay “finally” has his quarterback. As if he didn’t get Jared Goff paid in a massive deal that looks like a disaster right now. The team has already lost their budding RB star, Cam Akers, for the season. The rest of the offense is intact with the addition of TuTu Atwell and Desean Jackson brought in for max speed. Sony Michel was recently brought in to help Darrell Henderson sure up the RB position. I don’t love the Rams offensive line but it’s good enough I suppose. My real issue with the offense is for all of the talent Stafford has always had, he’s never been a winner. I know, he gets to work under McVay now and things should be different this time. But, I want to see him win games before I can believe in the Rams. The starting 22 are solid and elites are elite: Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, etc. LA doesn’t have any depth though. I get very worried when a team can’t weather adversity. Throw in losing their star defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley, for (the very capable) Raheem Morris and there will be some change to this defense that was ranked 4th overall DVOA last year. I expect the Rams to be in the playoff hunt all year and to stay competitive in a crowded division. For the same reason I can’t justify betting any 49ers futures (even when I like the Niners overall much more), I can’t get down on any Rams futures. Sure, there’s possibility they win 13 games and run away with the NFC. There’s also a larger probability that the health on the team doesn’t hold up and they are relegated to playing 2nd and 3rd stringers, that are on average worse than their counterparts on other teams. Pass, this team is too fragile.

Seattle is the 3rd favorite in a division they perennially win 10+ games in? Russell Wilson is still the starter: check. Pete Carroll is still the coach: check. DK Metcalf is still a stud: check. Tyler Lockett is a very good WR2: check. What am I missing? Chris Carson is back from injury at the RB position and TE Gerald Everett was brought in by new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron. Waldron is from the McVay tree and was brought in to Let Russ Cook. I think Russ is finally unleashed this year and will cause havoc on opposing defenses. The advantage of playing in the home of the 12th Man will be felt now that fans are allowed back into stadiums. The issue is the offensive line, which is still subpar and didn’t improve very much from last year. I think we will see a more uptempo, shorter passing offense from the Hawks this year to compensate for the line issues. On the defensive side of the ball, this team was average (16th DVOA) last year. The key playmakers (KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner) are old. The defensive line stinks. Best case scenario, this is an average defense again. That’s fine. Russell Wilson is a winner. In his 9 seasons he’s won less than 10 games one time. I’d be betting on the most accomplished QB in this division. A certified winner that is about to have the offense he’s been wanting to run for years. I like the value here. Gimmie the Seahawks. Seahawks o10 -110. Seahawks to win NFC West +275.

Let me see, Kliff Kingsbury is the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals? Great, I know I do not want to bet them over on futures. Sometimes its that simple. I really want this team to take the next step. I want Kyler to be great. I just can’t see this team winning more than 9 or 10 games. The win total is 8.5. This is a big ask of a team that hasn’t done it before. The offseason saw a lot of free agent moves such as JJ Watt, AJ Green, Malcom Butler, etc. I’m not so sure these mostly older players are going to be what puts the Cardinals over the top. They lose Patrick Peterson and the secondary has not drastically improved. I see a regression back from their 10th overall DVOA finish last year. The other thing to consider is while Kingsbury has the best no-sock game in the business, he’s a proven loser. The dude just fades late in the year. Last season he finished 2-5 to close out the year, with one win being a hail Mary. Here is his finishes the last 7 seasons (with the last 2 of them being the Cardinals).

2013: 1-5

2014: 2-8

2015: 2-4

2016: 2-6

2017: 2-6

2018: 0-5

2019: 2-7 (Cardinals)

2020: 2-5

Is that good? Listen. I love Deandre Hopkins. I think Rondale Moore is going to be a problem with this offense. I believe Chase Edmonds will be good in the backfield mixing in with James Conner. I just don’t think this defense that is primed to regress is going to hold up. I don’t know how the Kingsbury Kurse doesn’t rear its ugly head late in the season. I don’t know if Kyler can stay healthy, given his 5’9” frame. I’m gonna lean under but most certainly pass.