Quick Week 17 RECAP & Playoff Previews

As we are moving into the playoffs, I’m not gonna waste a bunch of time on teams no longer playing. I do want to point out that I am publishing these power ratings as a way to gauge teams next year. Yes, things are going to change, draft picks will be made, free agents will be acquired, etc. But it is important to note that using power ratings from this season is better than starting from scratch. With that said, let’s look back at last week’s games that are involving playoff teams.

Even when they didn’t need to win and the Bears were desperate, the Packers still managed to cover in Chicago. Aaron Rodgers is unquestionably the MVP. He is playing on an entire other level right now. The biggest issue the Packers are dealing with right now is losing their LT headed into the playoffs. Don’t discount how big a deal this is. Especially against a team that brings pressure. The Bears did their best and still lost. Granted, the Pack are the best team in the NFC right now but still... The defense has had better days but that happens when you go up against Rodgers. Mitch Trubisky absolutely must run, run, run for them to have any chance against the Saints this weekend. The Bears made the playoffs thanks to the Rams beating the Cardinals. They will need to figure out a really good game plan this weekend because you better believe Sean Payton will.

The Saints won a game I really don’t think they were going to try hard in. However, they still crushed the Panthers. I mostly blame the usually steady Teddy Bridgewater continuously throwing interceptions in the endzone this weekend. Either way, the Saints capitalized and cruised. They are getting Michael Thomas back and the defense is top notch. You can’t run on them at all, so basically they are gonna force Trubisky to single handedly beat them. Sounds like advantage Saints. Tampa Bay also took care of business this weekend against the Falcons. They will face a much tougher defense this weekend in Washington. Tom Brady basically did whatever he wanted to last weekend because the Falcons can’t bring pressure. Mike Evans got banged up and left early. It’s very possible he won’t be playing this weekend. I think Antonio Brown will play a HUGE role in Tampa’s gameplan in Washington.

The Rams beat Arizona outright with a backup quarterback that has never played a snap in the NFL. Furthermore, said quarterback looks like he pimps Russian girls out of Sheepshead Bay. It’s all about the defense with the Rams. I expect them to really slow the game down against the Seahawks. While Goff missed last weekend, it seems like he’s likely to go against Seattle. Look for a lot of Cam Akers and company on the ground. The Seahawks beat the 49ers in a game that was much more competitive than most people expected. Not me though, I expected it. The story is the Seattle defense playing much better. As good as they’ve played all season. They’re gonna need it because the offense has slowed to a crawl. This weekend Jalen Ramsey will get DK Metcalf, so I don’t expect much from DK. It’s gonna be a lot of Russ Wilson running around doing Russ things. Russ usually finds a way.

The Bills managed to hang almost 60 on the Dolphins in a must win for Miami. The Bills are now my second best team in the NFL. Buffalo did all this with using backups for the entire second half. While this kept Miami out of the playoffs, the Dolphins are on the right track and will be contenders next year, with Tua as the guy or not. I think the Fins should draft another QB but that’s for another time. As for Buffalo, they are so hot it will be hard to go against them but laying 6.5 this weekend sure seems like a lot.

Pittsburgh sat every important player this weekend and still almost beat the Browns. These two teams will have to play again on Sunday, this time with all of starters back and the Browns missing their head coach and other pieces due to COVID. I can’t bet the Browns as anything short of +7.5. The line is oddly hovering at 6 and won’t budge. Seems fishy but I can’t back Cleveland. The Ravens blew out another awful team in Cincy. They are now rolling for the first time all season. I really wish the Ravens played any good teams in this stretch. The one good team they did play, the Browns, they allowed to hang 40+ points on them IN A WIN. I am going to have a hard time backing Baltimore on the road this weekend. Also, don’t forget that the Titans have now beaten them in last year’s playoffs and earlier this year. That game will be fun. Probably the one game I’m most looking forward to.

The Titans BARELY held on against the lowly Texans and managed to win their division. Yay Tennessee! This defense is horrible. It’s really hard to trust a defense this bad in the playoffs. It’s going to have to depend on matchups for me to bet on Tennessee. The Colts beat the worst team in football and got help from Buffalo to get into the playoffs. Jacksonville was within a score and driving late in that game before an awful Mike Glennon turnover. It’s possible that there’s some sort of matchup edge the Jags have with Colts this year. Either way, the Colts defense has taken a sharp turn south since the middle of this year. It’s amazing to me that their defensive coordinator, Eberflus, is getting so many coaching interviews. The Colts do run the ball well and that is Buffalo’s weakness. Jonathan Taylor is shaping up to be a first round pick in next year’s fantasy drafts. The Buffalo / Colts game lined at -6.5 is the hardest game on the entire board this weekend. I have to leave you with one stat on the Colts. I honestly couldn’t believe it. The Colts are the only team in this year’s NFL that hasn’t been more than a 1 point underdog in any game. Wild.

The Chiefs basically took an off day on Sunday. I expected them to still cover against an Anthony Lynn coached team. Even with their B team. That didn’t happen. I don’t like the way the Chiefs have looked coming into the playoffs. Not saying they aren’t gonna turn it on and drop 40+ on their opponents. They might. I just haven’t seen it in a while. They look like the Golden State Warriors when they were just coasting a few years ago looking for a challenge. I don’t like that they will essentially not play for 3 weeks when they play next week.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 8 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the 49ers, I believe they should be 8 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing the 49ers in San Francisco, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 5 point favorite (accounting for a 49ers 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be an 8.5 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be an 11.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.